Ghana's inflation rate dropped to 3.3% in February, marking a near three-decade low and fueling expectations for a fifth consecutive rate cut. The central bank faces a delicate balancing act as easing price pressures conflict with geopolitical risks from Middle East tensions that could reignite global inflation through higher energy costs and disrupt economic recovery.

Africa's top gold producer has benefited from an improved fiscal outlook and record-high gold prices. The cedi's appreciation against major currencies over 14 months has curbed import inflation. Government Statistician Alhassan Iddrisu highlighted easing imported inflation, slowing food prices, and moderating services as key forces behind the decline.

Analysts expect a potential 150 basis-point rate reduction to 14%, though Brent crude's 15% surge since Middle East fighting began adds uncertainty. The Bank of Ghana maintained its 6-10% inflation target for 2026 but may pause further easing if geopolitical risks materialize. Policymakers have already cut rates by 12.5 percentage points since July, bringing the benchmark to 15.5%.