Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Market Turmoil
South Korean stocks suffered their worst one-day drop as the Kospi index plunged 12% amid massive foreign investor liquidation. The S&P 500 faces potential correction with Wolfe Research warning it could drop to as low as 6500 before staging another rally. European stocks rebounded sharply on hopes of a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict, posting their biggest gain since May.
Energy Crisis
Jet fuel prices are soaring globally as oil traders grapple with the fallout from the Iran war, adding to wider inflation concerns. Aluminum prices surged to their highest level since 2022 after Bahrain's Aluminium BSC suspended deliveries under force majeure clauses. Middle East oil prices skyrocketed as Platts excluded Gulf loadings from its key trading platform, with Dubai benchmark prices reaching eye-watering levels.
Corporate Impact
Continental warned that its forecast for higher returns may be derailed by the war with Iran, becoming one of the first major companies to alert investors to the conflict's risks. Woolworths reported that trading in its Australian apparel business slowed sharply while investment in its South African food division weighed on margins. Brown-Forman posted higher third-quarter sales as fiscal-year growth in emerging markets helped counter weakness in the US and developed markets.
Policy & Central Banks
Fed Governor Miran stated that rate cuts remain appropriate despite the Middle East war, maintaining a dovish stance. The Federal Reserve could still deliver two interest rate cuts if there's a quick resolution to the Iran conflict, according to Goldman Sachs' Trivedi. Ghana's inflation fell to a near three-decade low in February, bolstering expectations for a fifth straight rate cut even as the Middle East conflict threatens to rekindle global price pressures.
Defense & Infrastructure
Morgan Stanley sees huge flows into defense stocks as funds drop sustainable investing limits amid geopolitical tensions. NATO defenses shielded Turkey as the Iran conflict spilled into alliance territory, with the military downing an Iranian missile heading for Turkey. Ares Management identified massive demand for AI infrastructure as tech companies scramble to build data centers despite accounting questions about their power agreements.
Regional Markets
Canada's labor productivity edged down in the final quarter of 2025 as economic activity pulled back. Indonesia's credit outlook was cut to negative by Fitch Ratings due to rising policy uncertainty. The UK services sector expanded for the tenth straight month in February, showing resilience despite energy cost concerns.
Market Technicals
Broadcom faces pressure to climb the "AI Wall of Fear" as Wall Street expects strong earnings but recent trading patterns suggest even surpassing expectations may not reverse stock declines. Nvidia has taken a positive step by swearing off an earnings crutch in how it reports stock-based compensation, putting pressure on other tech companies. Goldman Sachs sees equities vulnerable to correction but not a bear market amid current volatility.
Emerging Markets
Thailand moved closer to forming a new government as election results were certified, with Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's ruling party securing a decisive win. Kenya's first IPO in 11 years scraped through with Uganda's help, exceeding its target by 5.7% for the state-run pipeline company. Pakistan faces growing strain as its largest gas distributor prepares to cut supplies to some industrial customers amid Middle East energy disruptions.