Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Market Volatility
Stock futures erased earlier gains after the Trump administration signaled that global 15% tariff on US imports would likely take effect this week, adding a further potential disruption to markets already rattled by Middle East tensions. Asian stocks are plunging, in part because the region's economies depend on imported oil, while South Korean stocks hit hardest by Iran war as market plunges 12% in worst one-day drop. European stocks rebounded on hopes of quick Iran war resolution, seeing their biggest gain since May on increased investor optimism for a short-lived conflict in the Middle East.
Energy & Commodities
Oil facing 'crisis of shipping' with no obvious solution, analyst Sankey says, as global oil market needs to see a resolution reached by Friday to guarantee the movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East oil prices soared after Platts excludes Gulf loadings, with Dubai benchmark surging as bids were placed at eye-watering levels on key trading platform. Goldman lifts oil price forecast amid Hormuz disruptions and lower inventories, while energy stocks rally just getting going if Ukraine lessons hold, with crude spiked past $100 and shares in oil and gas producers rallying for months during previous conflict.
Geopolitical Impact
Container shipping companies have begun halting bookings and diverting vessels as they respond to increasing security risk in the Middle East. Airlines based in the Gulf are 'living the worst-case scenario' as every airline has contingency plans to manage disruptions from extreme weather or mechanical failures, but those based in the Middle East always have another item on their list: war. Pakistan cuts gas for some industry buyers as war upends supply, suggesting growing strain in one of the economies most dependent on energy exports from Qatar.
Corporate Performance
Brown-Forman sales rise as emerging markets business grows, with Jack Daniel's maker reporting higher third-quarter sales as fiscal-year growth in emerging markets help to counter weakness in the U.S. and developed markets. Abercrombie & Fitch beats estimates, shares rise, while Bath & Body Works says strategy shift making progress but 'will take time' after reporting lower fourth-quarter profit. Dassault Aviation edges higher after 2025 sales beat, positive outlook, while Continental warns Middle East conflict may hit profit, making tiremaker one of first big companies to alert investors to risk of conflict.
Currency & Bond Markets
The dollar slides most in a month after report on Iran outreach, falling the most in nearly a month after New York Times report said Iranian operatives had offered to discuss terms for ending the war. European bonds halt selloff as traders follow energy price swings, wavering between gains and losses as traders weighed volatility in energy prices against prospect of talks over conflict in Middle East. Swiss National Bank has voiced increased willingness to intervene in foreign-exchange markets to halt recent gains in the franc amid fallout in global markets.
Defense & Security
Funds with sustainable investing goals are set to become meaningful backers of defense industry, as geopolitical tensions and outright war redefine what it means to be an ESG investor. South Korean defense contractors are looking at more deals and investments in the Philippines to support Southeast Asian nation's military modernization amid longstanding geopolitical tensions. NATO defenses shield Turkey as Iran conflict spills into alliance territory, with NATO downing Iran missile heading for Turkey.
Regional Markets
Indonesia's credit outlook suffers fresh blow from Fitch on rising policy uncertainty, adding to widening chorus of warnings about risks to Southeast Asian nation's assets. Ghana's inflation rate fell to near three-decade low in February, bolstering expectations for fifth straight rate cut even as conflict in Middle East threatens to rekindle global price pressures. Czech inflation unexpectedly slowed further in February but energy shock from Iran war may limit central bank's room for resuming interest rate cuts.
Tech & Innovation
Bitcoin climbs above $71,000 in broad crypto advance, while Kraken becomes first crypto firm to win access to Fed's core payments system, meaning industry is step closer to becoming integrated into mainstream financial system. Snowcap Compute says employees who have 'seen and felt enough pain' are key to success, where average age tops, while Varda Space Industries snags former Mattel plant in El Segundo for space manufacturing.
Market Outlook
Equities are vulnerable to correction, not bear market according to Goldman Sachs, while chart watchers see risks of S&P 500 correction amid war jitters as US stocks started deep in red for two straight days. Citi's security unit was meant to probe misconduct but employees say it protected the bank instead, with internal team staffed by ex-law enforcement 'operates as HR's internal hit squad,' former executive says. How to dodge the next Sam Bankman-Fried as new research reveals surge in start-up fraud and some possible causes.