Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Market Turmoil Amid Iran Conflict
European stocks jumped their most since November on hopes of Middle East peace talks, while South Korean stocks plunged 12% in their worst one-day drop as the conflict rocked Asian markets. The FTSE 100 tumbled 25% after Vistry warned on margins and announced CEO retirement, with the index set to rebound following the selloff.
Oil prices soared as Platts excluded Gulf loadings, while Middle East natural gas prices remained elevated amid severe supply disruptions. European natural gas prices dropped on reports of secret Iran peace outreach, though Singapore faces higher power bills on Qatar's LNG shutdown.
Earnings & Corporate News
Adidas tumbled as operating profit guidance disappointed, falling short of expectations due to U.S. tariffs and currency headwinds. The sportswear giant extended CEO Bjoern Gulden's contract through 2030 as it embarks on a brand revamp strategy. Bayer shares dropped as 2026 profit outlook missed despite Q4 beat, while Evonik cut 2026 revenue outlook despite holding earnings guidance.
Dassault Aviation edged higher after 2025 sales beat with positive outlook, though CEO warned the European fighter jet project is at risk of collapse unless Airbus cooperates. Novo Nordisk rose 3% after FDA sent warning letters to 30 GLP-1 telehealth firms. Continental AG raised its dividend despite 2026 profit view trailing forecasts.
Central Banks & Policy
The Swiss National Bank repeated intervention threats with inflation near zero, while Swiss inflation held steady at low levels as franc concerns swirl. The European Central Bank blog argued AI may be creating instead of destroying jobs for now. Ghana's inflation fell to a near three-decade low in February, bolstering rate-cut hopes as war clouds the outlook.
Indonesia's credit outlook was cut to negative by Fitch on rising policy uncertainty. The Reserve Bank of India created intervention space as the rupee faces renewed strain amid record lows. Czech inflation unexpectedly slowed further in February but the energy shock from the Iran war may limit rate-cut room.
Defense & Geopolitics
Morgan Stanley sees huge flows into defense as funds drop limits, with sustainable investing funds becoming meaningful backers of the defense industry. The European Investment Bank made its biggest defense pledge with Germany's Join Capital. South Korean defense contractors are eyeing more Philippine deals amid geopolitical tensions.
Libya 2011 offers a playbook for the S&P 500 in the Iran conflict, according to Citi. Goldman Sachs says the Fed can still cut rates twice on quick Iran resolution, while Morgan Stanley explains why gold is falling despite Iran escalation. Goldman lifted oil price forecasts amid Hormuz disruptions and lower inventories.
Regional Markets & Economy
Asian energy buyers face stress as the Middle East war drags on, with panic spreading among oil and fuel buyers as the conflict chokes access to crude and refined fuels. Pakistan cuts gas for some industrial buyers as war upends supply, suggesting growing strain in energy-dependent economies.
Kenya's first IPO in 11 years scraped through with Uganda's help, exceeding its target by 5.7%. The Middle East & Africa region faces evacuation costs rising as high as $250,000 as more families flee Dubai. Thailand gets closer to a new government as vote results are certified.
Technology & Innovation
Snowcap Compute values experience over youth, with CEO saying employees who have "seen and felt enough pain" are key to success. The startup envisions computing beyond semiconductors with a breakthrough in superconductor manufacturing that could transform AI economics. Alibaba's AI wizard who warned of US-China tech gap has stepped down.
Italy's Fineco says it will use AI to boost new client growth under its plan to 2029. Kraken became the first crypto firm to win access to the Fed's core payments system, integrating the industry closer to mainstream finance. Bitcoin climbed above $71,000 in a broad crypto advance as Trump offered some support amid Iran fears.
Financial Sector
Wood Group was fined £13 million for overstating three years of profits after an FCA probe found "poor operating culture" led to accounting errors. Banco Master owner was sent back to jail in Brazil as a massive probe into the failed lender grinds on. Citi's security unit was meant to probe misconduct but employees say it protected the bank instead.
Barclays upgraded Nexans, saying the selloff was overdone after GSI concerns, with the stock up 6%. Barclays sees European stocks falling 10% if oil hits $100. Jefferies upgraded Kion Group after the selloff, citing limited downside risk.