Pakistan State Oil notified Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Ltd. that it could not provide regasified LNG to fertilizer plants starting Wednesday, as disruptions from the Persian Gulf conflict escalate. This move, prompted by five days of hostilities, signals growing strain in an economy heavily reliant on Qatari energy imports. The conflict, disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and Qatar's Ras Laffan plant, echoes Pakistan's acute suffering during the 2022 energy crisis, when blackouts forced costly LNG purchases. Samiullah Tariq of Pakistan Kuwait Investment sees shifting to cheaper coal as a potential silver lining, but Masanori Odaka of Rystad Energy warns that a shortfall of five or more LNG shipments could prove both painful and costly.

With Pakistan receiving only two cargoes in March and potentially facing a gap of two to three shipments in April-May, filling this shortfall domestically or with coal may be insufficient, especially given Pakistan's history of deferred payments and expensive long-term LNG contracts with Qatar. The crisis compounds existing economic struggles and regional tensions with Afghanistan.