Geopolitical tail risks are escalating, but Viktor Shvets emphasizes they are not the sole determinant of investment outcomes. While events like the Ukraine conflict and potential US-China tensions can trigger market volatility, Shvets argues that underlying economic fundamentals and central bank policies often exert a stronger influence on asset prices in the medium to long term.

He notes that while these geopolitical "shocks" can create significant short-term dislocations, the market's ability to price them in and adapt is crucial. The current environment presents a complex interplay between these geopolitical factors and the persistent inflation concerns, which are driving monetary policy.

Shvets suggests that investors should focus on understanding the broader economic landscape, including inflation trends, interest rate trajectories set by institutions like the Federal Reserve, and corporate earnings resilience. While acknowledging the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments, he advises against letting them entirely dictate investment strategies, advocating instead for a balanced approach that considers multiple market drivers. The November 2023 outlook, for instance, remains heavily influenced by these competing forces.