Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price outlook, citing significant disruptions to Middle Eastern supply flows and expectations of sharp inventory declines as the market grapples with reduced shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has already rallied strongly, climbing 34% year-to-date to about $82 a barrel as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply.

Goldman now expects Brent to trade in the mid-$80s during March as markets digest conflicting signals. The bank raised its 2026 second-quarter average forecast for Brent by $10 to $76 per barrel from $66 previously, while lifting its estimate for U.S. benchmark by $9 to $71 from $62. The revision reflects two assumptions: continued supply disruption in the near term and geopolitical uncertainty supporting oil prices.

The strategists led by Daan Struyven estimate about 200 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude production losses and large draws in OECD commercial inventories in March. Inventories are projected to fall by about 76 million barrels month-on-month, compared with a previous assumption of a 10 million barrel build. Goldman still expects prices to ease from current levels as the risk premium fades and inventories begin rebuilding once disruptions subside.