Wall Street grows uneasy as a new Goldman Sachs poll signals that the Strait of Hormuz will stay choked well into the second half of 2026. Investors gauge that shipping lanes anchored in the narrow waterway will not normalize after mid‑year, tightening supply chains across the globe.

The survey, part of Goldman’s Marquee MarketView, found that 57% of respondents expect disruptions beyond June, while 43% project normal traffic only after July. A third anticipate Brent crude to finish the year between $80 and $90 a barrel, reflecting heightened risk premiums.

These expectations reverberate through the energy sector, as reduced throughput in Hormuz can constrain OPEC+ output and elevate global prices. Shipping companies face higher insurance costs, while refiners brace for tighter crude supplies and potential storage bottlenecks.

The poll underscores a prolonged market shock that could keep Brent above $80 a barrel for much of 2026, pressuring producers to maintain output while hedging against sustained volatility. Investors and policymakers must plan for a supply‑tight environment that may persist well beyond the first half of the year for investors in the near term.