Goldman Sachs lifted its fourth-quarter 2026 oil price forecasts by $6 per barrel, citing tighter OECD inventories that have failed to build as expected. The revision comes amid January supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, particularly Iran-related concerns that have boosted risk premiums in oil markets.

The bank now expects Brent crude to reach $60 and WTI to hit $56 per barrel in Q4 2026. Goldman strategists noted only 19% of global inventory builds will materialize in OECD commercial stocks, down from 27% previously. Instead, about 25% of the surplus is accumulating as Russian and Iranian crude stored at sea.

Goldman still anticipates a global oil surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day for 2026, though the effective surplus shrinks to 1.7 million barrels when excluding floating barrels. The bank sees prices falling to $60 by late 2026 before strengthening in 2027.

The bank maintained its surplus view assuming no major supply disruption and no Russia-Ukraine peace settlement. January disruptions in Kazakhstan and Venezuela appear mostly temporary. For 2027, strategists forecast Brent and WTI to average $65 and $61 respectively on solid demand growth.