Goldman Sachs forecasts oil prices will drift lower in 2026 as a persistent supply glut outweighs geopolitical tensions. The bank expects Brent crude and WTI to average $56 and $52 per barrel next year, down from current forward prices of $62 and $58. A projected 2.3 million barrels per day surplus is driving inventory builds, particularly in OECD commercial storage hubs.

The ongoing production strength from the U.S., Russia, and a slight recovery in Venezuela is压制ing long-term prices. Goldman has revised its three-year Brent fair value assumption down to $64 and cut its 2027 forecasts accordingly. While geopolitical risks create short-term volatility, they are unlikely to sustain a price rally.

Goldman's base case assumes no new OPEC cuts, reflecting a strategic shift among producers. Prices may bottom in Q4 2026 at $54 and $50 for Brent and WTI respectively. Beyond 2026, a recovery is expected as non-OPEC supply growth slows.

However, long-term estimates for 2030–2035 have been trimmed to $75 and $71 per barrel, signaling delayed rebalancing due to years of underinvestment.