UBS analysts view 2026 as a turning point for crude after two years of deep oversupply. They expect the global surplus, which lingered near 1.9 million barrels per day in 2025, to shrink gradually, allowing Brent to stabilize after a first‑quarter dip to about $60 a barrel, average prices for the year are projected around $62, with U.S. WTI near $58. Supply risk dominates demand risk; any disruption in Russia, Venezuela or Iran that removes roughly 0.5 million barrels per day could push Brent into the mid‑to‑high $60s, while an extra million barrels from those nations might drag prices into the mid‑$50s.

OPEC+ spare capacity of roughly 4.1 million barrels per day caps upside, and faster unwinding of voluntary cuts would also limit gains. UBS sees Brent reaching $70 in 2027 and $75 by 2028 as non‑OPEC supply slows. Bernstein concurs that 2026 marks the cycle’s low, forecasting a rebound toward $70 in 2027. Market participants will watch geopolitical developments and OPEC+ policy adjustments closely.