Citadel Securities strategist Scott Rubner has reversed his bearish stance on US equities, predicting a March bounce after weeks of volatility. Rubner, who accurately called February's weakness, now sees improved conditions for a rebound, citing washed-out sentiment and resilient retail flows. His shift comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions following the US conflict with Iran.

Rubner's analysis points to several bullish factors including supportive seasonality, with March historically delivering positive returns 61% of the time since 1928. Retail investors have remained active, with January marking the largest net buying month on record for Citadel's platform. February still ranked fifth historically, demonstrating persistent demand even during volatile periods.

The strategist also highlights technical factors that could drive a rebound. About $5 trillion in options are set to expire March 20, the largest March expiration on record. This, combined with elevated volatility levels, could reset positioning and create a more favorable backdrop for stocks. Rubner notes that retail investors have been particularly aggressive dip buyers, with net notional dollar value traded running 2.5 times larger on down days than up days.