Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 3, 2026, 2:30 AM ET

Public Markets Briefing

Global Equities & Macroeconomic Trends

South Korean stocks rebounded 5% after a turbulent prior week marked by significant drops, underscoring investor skittishness amid growing scrutiny of the global artificial intelligence boom's sustainability. Meanwhile, analysts' expectations for S&P 500 earnings are rising at their fastest rate since the post-Covid pandemic rebound, fueling fears of an "earnings bubble." In Europe, Italy's tech group Bending Spoons, owner of AOL and Eventbrite, soared 40% on its Nasdaq debut, raising $1.68 billion in one of the year's largest European technology IPOs. Japanese equities, however, fell 1.0%, dragged down by electronics and tech stocks, as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict persisted. Analysts' revised expectations for S&P 500 earnings are rising at their fastest rate since the rebound from the Covid pandemic, potentially signaling an "earnings bubble."

Energy & Commodities

Oil futures steadied as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased further, adding to near-term supply while US-Iran talks continue. Citigroup forecasts Brent crude could slump to $60 a barrel by year-end as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz ease, contributing to a chorus of bearish global crude market outlooks. Japan has sharply reduced natural gas-fired power generation, relying more on coal, as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz tightened supplies of the cleaner-burning fuel. Palm oil edged lower, weighed down by declining crude prices and expectations for strong output from Malaysia. Copper climbed with industrial metals, supported by a weaker US dollar and diminished expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. The WSJ Dollar Index fell 0.47%, snapping a two-trading-day winning streak.

Fixed Income & Currency Markets

Japanese government bonds extended their rally as traders priced in a September Fed rate cut. The yen's historic slump is forcing investors to rethink widely used currency strategy gauges, according to Mizuho Bank. Options traders are paying more to hedge against sharp yen moves ahead of a thin US holiday trading session, as speculation grows that Japanese authorities may intervene less predictably. Australia's AMP Ltd. has ditched bonds from some retirement funds, stating sovereign debt no longer offers the diversification investors relied upon for decades. Japan may be new forex intervention strategy, according to DBS Group Research. U.S. Treasury yields recovered ground lost after disappointing labor data, ending the week higher.

Financial Institutions & Dealmaking

ICICI Bank Ltd. is in talks to raise at least $500 million in offshore bonds, marking its first benchmark dollar bond sale since 2017, as it capitalizes on RBI concessions. JPMorgan Chase still faces obligations to Charlie Javice's legal defense, with bills totaling $144.2 million including unusual expenses. Apollo Global Management is reportedly struggling to sell a Hispanic grocer after US immigration raids impacted sales, a situation described as Apollo's grocery aisle mess. Emirates NBD PJSC is reportedly in talks to acquire HSBC's Turkey unit. In Australian financial services, the operations of KPMG, PwC, EY, and Deloitte are proving an ongoing source of scandal. Schroders is close to selling its financial planning arm, Benchmark Capital, to Söderberg & Partners for over £200 million, as the UK asset manager aims to dispose of the unit.

Technology & AI

Anthropic is moving to close loopholes that allow Chinese access to its Claude AI models, despite stringent restrictions engineers are still finding ways to circumvent. The artificial intelligence-driven rally has powered a semiconductor surge, tightening tech's grip on Wall Street. Taiwanese authorities have escalated a probe into the unauthorized diversion of advanced AI servers, as part of efforts to crack down on alleged smuggling. Data center firm Switch Inc. is kicking off a private funding round led by Andreessen Horowitz that could raise about $2 billion to expand its infrastructure. AI's trillion-dollar funding boom is opening a new front in the private bond market, allowing tech borrowers to sell debt directly to insurance firms. Apple's Tim Cook held "constructive" talks with the EU's tech chief over 'Siri AI,' as the tech group seeks to avoid fines and resolve deadlock over its AI assistant launch ahead of potential penalties.

Corporate News & Strategy

An Indian state is objecting to Mediterranean Shipping Co.'s planned $1.4 billion investment in an Adani Group-run terminal, intensifying scrutiny of the Swiss firm following a chemical spill last year amid environmental concerns. Gymshark founder Ben Francis is in talks to buy back a stake from General Atlantic, seeking to cement his control over the fitness brand. Adidas is reportedly outplaying Nike in the global sportswear competition under CEO Bjørn Gulden. Nike executives issued a cautious outlook, warning of elevated consumer anxiety and signaling a painfully slow turnaround. Tesla's sales surged 25% on a recovery in Europe, with price cuts helping the electric automaker rebound offsetting US declines. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has closed its probe into Tesla's "phantom braking" after complaints dropped sharply, finding no crashes tied to the issue and that they posed only a low safety risk. Renk Group AG is nearing a deal to acquire privately held David Brown Defence, a move that would give it greater exposure to the naval sector. Lockheed Martin is reportedly in the lead to acquire naval tech group Ultra Maritime in a $3.5 billion deal, with an agreement potentially announced early next week.

Emerging Markets & Development

Vietnam's economic growth unexpectedly jumped to 8.39% in the second quarter, with June trade growing faster than anticipated and inflation slowing, beating estimates. India is fast-tracking efforts to sell stakes in state-owned companies, including its largest life insurer, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration looks to cushion the budget. The IMF has joined a backlash against "opaque" debt, launching a crackdown on total return swaps seen as threatening efforts to make emerging market sovereign debt more transparent. Slovakia is set to revive primary aluminum production at a plant that was once one of Europe's biggest producers of the metal, aiming to restore capacity. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced plans for a new oil pipeline to the Pacific Coast, a move signaling Canada's bid to position itself as an energy-exporting superpower and reduce reliance on the US. Canada and the Philippines plan to finalize a free trade agreement this year and deepen cooperation on energy, defense, labor, and migration, as per agreements.

Regulatory & Legal Developments

Egg producers have agreed to pay $3.3 million to settle a federal price-fixing lawsuit, and will also donate over 53 million eggs to food banks and nonprofits across 17 states involved in the antitrust action. The Supreme Court allowed a reporter to be fined for failing to disclose a source, a ruling that impacts journalistic privilege. A judge blocked the Postal Service from imposing restrictions on mail-in ballots, a decision based on agreements made in a 2021 legal settlement and representing the second time a judge has curbed new voting curbs. The Bank of England plans to proceed with a proposal to limit hedge fund leverage, a move criticized for potentially raising funding costs. South Korea's financial watchdog is moving ahead with sanctions against private equity firm MBK Partners over issues related to its distressed portfolio company, retailer Homeplus Co., in a regulatory process.

Geopolitical & Social Factors

The escalating heatwave is elevating national security risks as temperatures break records, while Parisians seek refuge in air-conditioned hotels as outdoor conditions become dangerous. Ukraine is escalating drone strikes on Crimea, aiming to pressure Putin to end the war through fuel shortages and power cuts in the annexed region. US officials believed Israel was plotting to kill Iranian negotiators, an action that would have derailed peace talks. The US-Iran ceasefire holding has led to a quadrupling of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz over the past week as tankers cautiously return, increasing transits. A new mandatory disclosure revealed President Trump has earned $2.2 billion during his first year back in the White House, a figure that has drawn little reaction from his base.

Other Market Movers

The World Cup's performance by star players and victories for popular teams have cost gambling companies like Draft Kings as much as $50 million, a result of costly player success. England-Mexico World Cup ticket prices are soaring, with resale prices as high as $36,000 for the tournament's final game in Mexico, fueled by host nation fever. Nigel Farage's marketing of gold has come under scrutiny after he was paid £270,000 in May by Direct Bullion for 12 hours of work as a 'brand ambassador' for the metal under review.