Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ET

Public Markets Overview

Energy & Commodities

Oil futures saw a notable decline as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions continued to ease. This trend was corroborated by increasing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, adding to near-term supply while US-Iran talks progressed suggesting a softening of tensions. Despite these drops, Japanese power generation sharply reduced natural gas use in favor of coal, as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz tightened supplies of cleaner fuel. Refiners, however, posted soaring profits, indicating persistent supply-chain kinks despite the overall pickup in energy shipments. Russia, meanwhile, boosted crude oil exports to record levels, though its earnings have fallen to the lowest since March due to tumbling prices.

Equities & Markets

Global equities showed mixed performance, with U.S. stocks ending mixed following a weaker-than-expected June jobs report that tempered interest rate hike expectations. Technology stocks, particularly in Japan, faced downward pressure, contributing to a 1.0% fall in the Nikkei index amid ongoing Middle East conflict uncertainty. In contrast, China's services activity eased less than anticipated, signaling a pick-up in economic momentum. Vietnam's economy unexpectedly jumped 8.39% in the second quarter, with trade growing faster than forecast in June and inflation slowing. Indian IPOs are poised for significant fundraising, with two listings expected to raise a combined $7 billion, benefiting from AI-driven investor interest. Australia's ASX Ltd., the world's worst-performing exchange operator, is betting on an outsider to lead a turnaround, facing an uphill battle with regulators and investors.

Fixed Income & Currencies

The Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook became a focal point after a cooler-than-expected U.S. jobs report prompted a strategic shift on Wall Street. This data led to a rally in U.S. government bonds challenging rate hike expectations, with yields recovering ground lost earlier in the week. Japanese government bonds experienced a rally, mirroring gains in U.S. Treasurys as traders adjusted their expectations for Fed policy. The yen, however, remained mostly weak, experiencing a possible technical correction against other currencies and falling to a 40-year low against the dollar, prompting the Finance Minister to renew pledges to curb excessive volatility alerting traders to potential intervention. Emerging market bond sales hit a record $450 billion in the first half, driven by tightest spreads in nearly two decades. Bond investors are now pulling back from Central American debt, viewing the recent rallies as having gone too far.

Deals & Corporate Activity

Industrial machinery maker Renk Group AG is nearing a deal to acquire David Brown Defence, bolstering its exposure to the naval sector. In the defense industry, Lockheed is reportedly buy naval tech group in a $3.5 billion deal. Sandwich chain Jersey Mike's has filed for an IPO, with private equity firm Blackstone eyeing a valuation of up to $12 billion. Barclays Plc has withdrawn a near $1 billion financing deal for Sound Inpatient Physicians Inc., a rare instance of a leveraged loan deal being pulled this year. The Australian operations of the Big Four accounting firms—KPMG, PwC, EY, and Deloitte—continue to be a source of scandal, tarnishing their reputations Down Under. Meanwhile, PwC is securing new office space in Canary Wharf, London, as it considers its main headquarters.

Economy & Policy

Canada and Alberta have agreed to back a new crude pipeline to the Pacific Coast signaling a bid for energy superpower status, with plans to supply Asia with 1 million barrels per day as part of a strategy to reduce over-reliance on the U.S. amid trade tensions breaking dependence on the US. Canada and the Philippines also plan to finalize a free trade agreement this year and deepen cooperation on energy and defense growing defense ties. In the U.S., data from the Federal Reserve indicated that inflation poses less risk than, with Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasizing the central bank's commitment to price stability. However, a hawkish pivot was brewing before Warsh's ascension, and the bond market is taking his pronouncements seriously, though the curves are flattening suggesting potential deception. The European Central Bank faces a splintered view on its next rate move, with Governing Council member Martin Kocher stating that decisions will be either a hike or a hold next decisions will.

Technology & AI

The race for cheaper AI options has spurred innovation, with startups like Together AI specializing in open-source models and reaching valuations over $8 billion. However, regulatory scrutiny is increasing, as seen with Anthropic receiving a reprieve from the Trump administration regarding its AI models restoring access to powerful AI, though Silicon Valley remains concerned about increased government regulation. Data centers have been ordered to use backup power during a severe heat wave to reduce grid strain, highlighting the challenges of managing energy consumption from large loads. US energy regulator FERC has set an ultimatum for data centers setting a 60-day deadline to justify or revise their grid connection methods.

President Trump & Business

President Donald Trump's financial disclosure revealed over 21,000 securities trades in his first year back in office tied to market events he created. His business holdings have generated over $2 billion in earnings, creating potential conflicts of interest that surpass any predecessor intersecting with government policy. Trump believes Elon Musk will donate SpaceX stock to the Trump accounts initiative following other executives' embrace. Meanwhile, the Trump administration's actions, such as allowing national parks to remove signs the president deems "negative" removing 'woke' material, continue to be debated. The FBI is examining election records in Georgia to investigate Trump's claims of a rigged election investigating election records.

Other Notable Developments

Gold prices extended recent gains, surpassing $4,200 per ounce, driven by weak U.S. jobs data that lowered the odds of Federal Reserve rate hikes weak jobs data lowers. Comex gold settled higher for a third consecutive session ending the week higher. The U.S. labor market showed slower but steady gains in June, with employers adding fewer jobs than the previous month, but the unemployment rate ticking down steady job gains reported. Data centers are facing scrutiny over energy usage during heat waves, with one project in Virginia by Blackstone's QTS ending due to protests. In India, Persistent Systems is attempting a large acquisition, while Deutsche Bank exits the country's retail business.