Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: March 31, 2026, 8:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Tensions & Commodity Markets

The escalating Middle East conflict continues to drive extreme volatility across energy markets, with Brent crude on track for its largest monthly rise on record as traders anticipate sustained disruption until the Strait of Hormuz reopens. While WTI and Brent crude prices hover near the low $100s, spiking domestic fuel costs—with U.S. gas prices surging approximately 35 percent to top $4 a gallon since the conflict began—paint a clearer picture of the escalating supply crisis. This uncertainty prompted President Donald Trump to signal willingness to end the Iran war even if the critical shipping lane remains partially closed, causing U.S. stock futures to jump early Tuesday. However, the trajectory of the war remains uncertain, and a major Saudi chemical facility halted production following supply chain disruptions, keeping upward pressure on oil prices. Energy market analysts warn that if the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists for six to eight weeks, oil could surge to between $150 and $200 per barrel.

The energy shockwaves are reverberating globally, causing inflationary spikes across developed economies. Euro-zone inflation jumped the most since 2022 due to soaring energy costs, prompting ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller to state he cannot rule out an interest rate hike in April if energy prices remain elevated. Similarly, French inflation accelerated to its fastest pace since August 2024, and German power prices for May are trading at roughly four times French levels, demonstrating amplified supply differences. In response to domestic price pressures, South Africa will reduce its fuel tax, while the UK’s housing sector braces for cost increases and declining consumer sentiment due to the shock.

Equities & Corporate Deals

Equity markets demonstrated fragile sentiment, with tech megacaps entering a correction and big-money funds retreating during what proved to be the S&P 500’s worst month since 2022. Despite the broad pullback, some tech valuations look attractive, as the Nasdaq 100’s price-to-earnings ratio relative to the S&P 500 is now at its lowest level since 2018, suggesting tech bulls are ready to buy. In corporate maneuvers, Biogen agreed to acquire Apellis Pharmaceuticals for approximately $5.6 billion to strengthen its immunology and rare-disease pipeline. Meanwhile, in Asia, Kweichow Moutai shares surged the most in two months after the liquor maker announced a price increase for its flagship spirit, potentially boosting future earnings.

In the private capital space, the industry faces potential disappointment as projected returns may fall short of investor expectations, though some firms continue to secure massive funding rounds. Oaktree Capital Management-backed 17Capital LLP closed its latest net-asset-value loan fund at roughly $7.5 billion. Elsewhere, credit data firm 9fin Ltd. secured funding at a $1.3 billion valuation amid growing demand for debt intelligence, and the wearable device maker Whoop achieved a $10 billion valuation after raising $575 million from sovereign wealth funds and athletes.

Aviation & Transport Sector Dynamics

The aviation sector saw varied corporate developments alongside rising operational costs stemming from the energy crisis. Delta Air Lines plans to use Amazon’s Leo satellite service for in-flight Wi-Fi starting in 2028, challenging the dominance of Elon Musk’s Starlink. In executive leadership, India’s largest airline by fleet size, IndiGo, appointed the head of IATA as its new CEO, following the abrupt departure of its previous chief last year. Furthermore, the UK’s aviation regulator rejected Heathrow Airport’s £10 billion spending plan, mandating that average charges per passenger remain flat over the next five years.

Central Banking & Monetary Policy

Central banks globally are grappling with inflation driven by supply shocks, forcing policy recalibrations. Ethiopia’s central bank retained its benchmark interest rate at 15%, emphasizing the need for continued tight monetary policy to contain inflation below 10%. In contrast, the Bank of Thailand signaled a wait-and-see approach, deeming interest rate cuts ineffective against the Middle East-driven oil shock. Wall Street giants like JPMorgan and Pimco argue that bond markets are underestimating the risk of a sharp economic slowdown caused by the Iran war, suggesting growth concerns are being downplayed relative to inflation fears. On the regulatory front, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams stated that interest rates are well positioned despite significant supply chain disruptions.

Technology & Digital Infrastructure

Tech companies faced regulatory scrutiny and strategic shifts. The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority will assess Microsoft for ‘strategic market status’ concerning its business software offerings. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Inc. enacted a rule change to accelerate the entry of large newly listed companies, like SpaceX, into its main index. In corporate performance, UK-based Raspberry Pi Holdings Plc reported a 25% sales rise, driven by strong demand in the U.S. and China, with its profit surging due to the AI boom. On the supply chain front, the Middle East conflict has exposed the vulnerability of the semiconductor sector to the helium shortage.

Global Finance & Emerging Markets

Emerging markets are bearing the brunt of global economic fragmentation and energy price spikes. Turkey restarted foreign-currency swap transactions for the first time in a year to counter reserve drawdowns fueled by the broad selloff amid the war. The South African stock index is heading for its worst month since 2008, hit by weak emerging-market asset demand and plunging precious metals prices. Taiwan’s stocks have outperformed South Korean peers by the widest margin since 2009, indicating relative resilience compared to its regional counterpart amid the turmoil. In corporate funding, China’s appliance maker Midea Group is reportedly considering a $2 billion convertible bond sale.

Biopharma & Defense Spending

In healthcare, Biogen’s $5.6 billion acquisition of Apellis signals continued M&A activity in specialized medicine. Separately, in Asia, Eli Lilly signed a $2 billion deal with a Hong Kong biotech firm for AI drug development, reflecting a growing trend of global pharma seeking innovation in China. On the defense front, Israel’s parliament approved a revised war budget funded by additional borrowing and cuts to civilian spending to cover the conflict. Furthermore, German defense contractor Rheinmetall struck a deal with Boeing Australia to supply autonomous combat aircraft to the German military.

Corporate Governance & Legal Shifts

Corporate transparency rules are in the U.S., as the White House reviews an SEC proposal concerning semiannual corporate disclosures. In legal services, a UK Court of Appeal judgment allowing non-lawyers to work on litigation cases was welcomed by law firms. Meanwhile, private equity-backed legal partnership Macfarlanes has seen wealth generated by servicing the private capital industry in London. In a separate matter, JPMorgan announced its ‘American Dream Initiative’ aimed at boosting economic growth, small businesses, and homeownership, according to CEO Jamie Dimon.

Market Miscellany

The market volatility has led to some unusual corporate narratives. The owner of a Kuwaiti tanker was reportedly hit in an Iranian attack near Dubai, adding to supply concerns. In a lighter development, Nestlé managed to turn a massive KitKat heist into a public relations success by skillfully using the incident for meme marketing. Finally, the fitness tracking company Whoop is eyeing an IPO after reaching a $10 billion valuation, bolstered by investments from elite athletes.