Brent crude is set for its largest monthly price increase in history, surging 59% this month to over $115 a barrel amid escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran. The jump exceeds the previous record of 46% set in September 1990 following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, reflecting unprecedented disruption to global energy flows.

The spike extends to refined products, with jet fuel and diesel roughly doubling since January. US gasoline prices have climbed above $4 a gallon, a politically sensitive threshold not seen since 2022 when Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered the last global energy crisis. West Texas Intermediate has also risen more than 55% in March.

Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil and LNG flows, have removed an estimated 300mn barrels from supply. Morgan Stanley forecasts Brent to average $110 a barrel between April and June, with prices likely to rise further until demand is curtailed. The disruption has already shut down 10mn barrels of production and left 2mn barrels a day of refining capacity offline in the Middle East.