China dominates rare earth supply chains, severely hampers Washington's ability to exert its will over Beijing. The US government has made moves to break China's dominance, including buying stakes in US producers, striking offtake agreements, and pledging $10bn in debt backing for Project Vault. But despite these efforts, China fights back, and the EU's own truce over export controls expires in October.

As Soumaya Keynes questions on The Economics Show, how is it actually getting on? The reality is that rare earths are not profitable to produce. Cory Combs of Trivium China says it doesn't make any money and is a low-margin industry. Abigail Hunter at the SAFE Center notes that quarterly earnings calls for these companies must show the best possible outlook.

Expensive to produce and store, the equation is tricky. Government intervention is the only solution, but the timeline for metal independence is not short.