Oil prices could surge to $150 or $200 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for six to eight weeks, according to FGE NexantECA chairman Fereidun Fesharaki. The closure has already halted approximately 100 million barrels per week from reaching global markets, with Persian Gulf producers shutting in millions of barrels of daily supply amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict.

The strait, through which roughly 20% of global oil passes, is now closed to all but a handful of vessels. Futures showed volatility Tuesday as reports emerged of President Trump considering ending the campaign while keeping the waterway shut. Fesharaki dismissed verbal interventions as ineffective, arguing that physical supply disruptions will ultimately determine prices regardless of political statements.

With the market already experiencing significant strain, Fesharaki warned that losses will become "astronomical" if the closure persists. The situation represents a critical test for global energy markets, with potential ramifications extending far beyond immediate price spikes to broader economic stability.