Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: March 31, 2026, 2:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Tensions & Energy Markets

Global commodity markets remained dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, with Brent crude on track for its largest monthly rise on record as maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely constrained, prompting warnings that oil could spike to $150 or $200 a barrel if the closure persists for six to eight weeks. The supply disruption has pushed U.S. gasoline prices above $4 a gallon, a multiyear high that has caused American drivers, reeling from a 35 percent increase since late February, to rethink summer travel plans, though some analysts suggest the correlation between gas prices and presidential approval ratings may be weakening. Meanwhile, the oil disruption is fueling a significant boost for coal, as many Asian nations, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern LNG, are burning more of the dirtiest fossil fuel to offset imminent shipment cutoffs. Adding to the volatility, Russian oil exports from Baltic ports plunged to their lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine following drone strikes that crippled infrastructure.

The focus on energy security is manifesting across various sectors, with European power prices in Germany surging to four times the level seen in France, amplifying existing supply differences amplified by instability. In a related move, the United Kingdom abruptly paused its plan to write off £500 million in household energy debt despite record arrears, while Gulf stock markets showed divergence, with Dubai slumping as Muscat soared based on local exposure to the conflict. President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to end the military campaign against Iran, causing U.S. stock futures to jump, even as he simultaneously threatened severe infrastructure attacks on oil wells and desalination plants unless a deal was reached quickly.

Corporate Deals & Sector Moves

The M&A tally for the year reached $1.3 trillion following the announcement that spice maker McCormick would combine with a Unilever food unit to form a $65 billion giant, a transaction built upon a century of acquisitions by McCormick. In pharmaceuticals, Eli Lilly agreed to acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals for $6.3 billion to bolster its rare-disease and immunology pipeline, while Biogen is set to purchase Apellis Pharmaceuticals in a deal valued at $5.6 billion. Separately, the massive appetite for AI infrastructure continued, evidenced by Nvidia investing $2 billion in chipmaker Marvell to advance silicon photonics for data center systems, and Core Weave raising an unprecedented $8.5 billion in a chip-backed loan facility. In contrast to this expansion, UK fintech Monzo is shuttering its US operations to refocus resources on the UK and European markets where it has struggled to gain traction.

The food distribution sector saw a major transaction as Sysco moved to acquire Restaurant Depot for $29 billion, seeking to integrate the high-margin, cash-and-carry distribution model pioneered by the seller, whose reclusive 94-year-old founder, Nathan Kirsh, built the empire from a single warehouse. Meanwhile, in the auto sector, Volvo Car AB’s owner suggested integrating production of its Chinese sister brand’s models into Volvo plants to manage severe industry overcapacity, a move contrasting with rivals like BYD who are building new international factories. On the tech front, activist investor Irenic Capital disclosed a stake in Snap, arguing the social media firm’s market capitalization should be closer to $35 billion versus its current enterprise value of around $7 billion.

Public Markets & Regulatory Climate

The U.S. stock market braced for its worst quarterly performance in nearly four years, with tech megacaps entering a correction zone, leading the Nasdaq 100 valuation relative to the S&P 500 to reach its lowest point since 2018, though some tech bulls are preparing to buy the dip. In fixed income, US high-yield bonds are tracking toward their first negative quarterly return since 2022 amid rising Treasury yields and broader AI disruption fears, a structural instability that strategists at Barclays warned might necessitate official interventions in the Treasury market. European equity markets have also seen distress, with three former market darlings wiping out €481 billion ($481 in value this quarter, causing the Stoxx 600 Europe Banks index to threaten the end of its three-year bull run.

In corporate governance and regulation, the US audit regulator pledged to rewrite a quality control oversight rule following industry pushback, while the expiry of the global ban on digital duties at the WTO leaves digital downloads subject to taxation. Elsewhere, Barrick Mining Corp. formed a new leadership group to advance plans for an initial public offering of its North American operations, joining German tank maker KNDS NV which is reportedly gauging interest for a €5 billion IPO. In the digital asset space, Google researchers issued a warning that anticipated quantum computers may break the cryptography protecting assets like Bitcoin, as the fintech firm Tether Holdings SA cut top gold traders recently hired from HSBC.

US Politics, Policy & Urban Affairs

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is lifting the ban on governmental use of TikTok, the same platform used to amplify his campaign, while simultaneously facing scrutiny over his pledge for universal childcare after proposing a free preschool center in a wealthy neighborhood. On the regulatory front, political pressures are evident as President Trump called for increased domestic jet fuel purchases even as domestic supply capacity is tight, while senators pushed the administration for answers regarding the sharing of passenger data between airport security and immigration agents. The Supreme Court’s upcoming review of birthright citizenship serves as a reminder of how immigration law shapes American identity, as the court recently rejected a Colorado state law that banned ‘conversion therapy’ for minors. Furthermore, private credit risks, exacerbated by the political environment favoring risky investments, were flagged by a German bank as posing a major threat to the US economy.

In infrastructure and real estate, JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon unveiled an ‘American Dream Initiative’ aimed at boosting small businesses and homeownership, addressing political calls for increased wealth creation for young families. Meanwhile, the UK government is nearing a full nationalization of British Steel amid mounting losses with Chinese owner Jingye, and the UK’s housing bank is seeking to shield housebuilders from potential cost increases stemming from the Iran conflict. In the tech labor market, startups are resorting to offering higher base salaries rather than relying solely on equity packages to lure top AI talent.