Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Energy Markets in Turmoil
Oil prices ft.com surged to their highest levels since 2024 as the Iran conflict disrupted global supply chains. Gasoline prices nytimes.com in the US hit a 18-month high, with analysts warning of further increases as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. European energy markets bloomberg.com face renewed pressure as LNG tankers reroute from France to Asia, intensifying competition for limited supplies. Coal consumption ft.com is creeping back into favor as European nations confront another potential energy crisis.
Financial Markets React
US financial stocks bloomberg.com slid Friday as credit concerns persisted amid the broader market selloff. Asian junk bonds bloomberg.com underperformed global peers as the Iran war exposed the region's heavy dependence on imported energy. European debt markets bloomberg.com reopened after a week-long absence, with Baker Hughes offering the first high-grade corporate debt deal since the conflict began. Morgan Stanley bloomberg.com adopted a more cautious stance on Asian equities, trimming India exposure due to supply chain disruption concerns.
Corporate and M&A Activity
Dealmakers bloomberg.com warned that the Iran war is stymieing M&A activity with delays and increased diligence requirements. Kennedy-Wilson bloomberg.com bondholders organized to push back against a tender offer, seeking cash payments instead. Blue Owl Capital bloomberg.com revealed a £36 million exposure to a collapsed UK lender. BlackRock bloomberg.com faces challenges with its retail private-credit strategy as market angst grows.
Technology and AI Developments
Big Tech stocks bloomberg.com face an uncertain future as AI euphoria gives way to skepticism. Anthropic nytimes.com reportedly resumed talks with the Pentagon over AI tool usage, while OpenAI nytimes.com and Anthropic leaders feud over Pentagon contracts. Google ft.com CEO Sundar Pichai received a new pay deal worth up to $692 million, tied to stock price and Waymo growth. AI agent payments bloomberg.com remain largely theoretical as stablecoin firms like Circle and Stripe race to build systems for a world that doesn't yet exist.
Inflation and Economic Data
US inflation gauges bloomberg.com are likely to have diverged before the Iran war, with a dismal February jobs report challenging perceptions of labor market stability. US payrolls bloomberg.com unexpectedly fell 92,000 in February, with the unemployment rate rising and pointing to lingering fragility. Philippine inflation bloomberg.com hit a one-year high in February, potentially curbing further monetary easing. UK lenders ft.com raised mortgage rates amid warnings about inflation and energy prices following the Middle East conflict.
Geopolitical Developments
Israel launched bloomberg.com a "broad" wave of attacks on Tehran as tensions escalated on the seventh day of war. Saudi Arabia bloomberg.com intercepted drones heading toward the Shaybah oil field, which produces 1 million barrels daily. Qatar loaded bloomberg.com its first LNG cargoes since declaring force majeure. France, Italy, and Greece bloomberg.com coordinated efforts to ensure Red Sea shipping transit as tensions flare. India bloomberg.com stressed dialogue and diplomacy after the US sank an Iranian warship.
Market Infrastructure Changes
Vertiv Holdings bloomberg.com, Lumentum Holdings, Coherent Corp, and Echo Star Corp will join the S&P 500 in the latest quarterly rebalance. Polymarket wsj.com and Kalshi are each eyeing roughly $20 billion valuations as prediction markets seek to double their previous valuations. Stablecoin firms wsj.com face growing resistance as banks worry about competition from crypto-based savings alternatives.
Individual Company News
Endeavour Mining wsj.com reported earnings boosted by higher gold prices, with total shareholder returns expected to more than double the company's minimum commitment. Sushiro operator bloomberg.com shares dropped after a Beijing food probe by Chinese authorities. UGG founder bloomberg.com Brian Smith discussed building the iconic brand with Bloomberg. Rolls-Royce ft.com boss is in line for an increased £18 million annual pay package.
Market Sentiment and Strategy
Lloyd Blankfein bloomberg.com warned of geopolitical risk amid "an anxious market," saying his experience tells him "a reckoning" is coming. Goldman Sachs bloomberg.com strategists said stocks may suffer a correction but "nothing systemic." Former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz bloomberg.com said triple-digit oil prices are possible if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. Peter Oppenheimer discussed the impact of Middle East war on inflation, the economy, and equity markets.
Alternative Assets and Private Markets
Investcorp bloomberg.com closed a fund buying minority stakes in private investment firms, drawing over $1.1 billion in commitments. Galvanize bloomberg.com hit $1 billion for a commercial real estate strategy designed to make buildings more resilient to soaring energy costs. AtaiBeckley bloomberg.com is working with advisers to explore options for its flagship psychedelic drug candidate. EA buyout banks bloomberg.com are eyeing a €4 billion, $10.5 billion debt split for the record leveraged buyout.
Regulatory and Policy Developments
US agencies ft.com drafted strict new AI guidelines amid the Anthropic clash, mandating civilian government contracts make models available for "any lawful" use. The FDA nytimes.com vaccine regulator resigned amid controversy over overriding career scientists. Canada, Japan, and Australia nytimes.com discussed defense without US help as Trump pressures military spending. UK regulators ft.com banned and fined financier Crispin Odey following sexual misconduct allegations.
Emerging Markets and International
Sri Lanka bloomberg.com is in a "good position" to absorb oil price shocks, according to the central bank governor. China bloomberg.com urged at-risk people to undergo cancer screening tests as part of broader prevention efforts. The Philippines faces delicate economic positioning with inflation at a one-year high. Brazil nytimes.com made a political U-turn toward the US at Trump's Miami summit after two decades of resistance.