Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Energy Markets & Geopolitics
Oil prices wsj.com surged 14% in a week, hitting their highest levels since 2024 as the Iran conflict disrupts global supply. U.S. natural gas futures wsj.com also settled higher amid growing concerns about energy security. Goldman Sachs bloomberg.com warned that there's "not a ton of confidence" in U.S. security measures to protect oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz bloomberg.com suggested triple-digit oil prices are possible if the strait remains closed. Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein bloomberg.com described the market as "anxious" and warned that his experience suggests "a reckoning" is coming.
Market Volatility & Trading
The S&P 500 bloomberg.com is showing signs of vulnerability as AI euphoria gives way to skepticism, with big tech stocks becoming less expensive. Goldman Sachs bloomberg.com strategists warned that stocks may suffer a correction, though they don't expect anything systemic. Credit Agricole bloomberg.com began scouting for a new London headquarters, potentially departing its home of almost four decades. Kennedy-Wilson bloomberg.com bondholders organized to push back against a tender offer, with investors holding a majority of bonds planning to skip the debt exchange.
Private Markets & M&A
Dealmakers bloomberg.com are seeing the Iran war stymie M&A activity with delays and increased diligence, potentially derailing a record haul of mergers and acquisitions. BlackRock bloomberg.com is facing market angst over its retail private-credit ambitions after its $12 billion purchase of HPS Investment Partners. Blue Owl Capital bloomberg.com has a £36 million exposure to Century Capital Partners, a UK lender that filed for administration. Galvanize bloomberg.com hit $1 billion for a commercial real estate strategy focused on energy resilience.
Financial Services & Banking
JPMorgan bloomberg.com hosted its 3,500-person leveraged finance event in Miami Beach amid growing unease about the $3 trillion leveraged finance market. Banks and asset manager stocks bloomberg.com fell as credit concerns persisted, with financial firms sliding amid fresh worries over private credit. High-grade firms bloomberg.com returned to Europe's debt market after a week-long absence, with Baker Hughes offering the first deals following several days of near standstill due to the conflict.
Prediction Markets & Alternative Finance
Kalshi and Polymarket wsj.com are each eyeing roughly $20 billion valuations as rival prediction markets seek to double their previous valuations. Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan bloomberg.com acknowledged that rising visibility brings "more money, more problems" as war-related contracts face growing resistance. Polymarket bloomberg.com bets on the Iran war are showing limits of prediction markets for Wall Street, with contracts serving as novel financial instruments for hedging against economic fallout.
International Markets
International funds wsj.com are outperforming U.S. counterparts, up 9.3% in 2026 and winning the "stock-fund Olympics." Morgan Stanley bloomberg.com turned more cautious on Asian stocks, cutting India exposure over concerns about supply chain disruptions if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fail. Asian junk bonds bloomberg.com are underperforming as the Iran war exposes the region's oil dependence, getting disproportionately hit compared to global peers.
Commodities & Materials
Endeavour Mining wsj.com reported earnings boosted by higher gold prices, with total shareholder returns expected to more than double the company's minimum commitment at prevailing prices. A huge aluminum options trade bloomberg.com came into the money as the Iran war sparked a sharp rally in prices, delivering a windfall after dealers were stunned by the position's appearance last week. Top manganese firms bloomberg.com in South Africa are planning a bid to run a new export terminal at the southeastern port of Ngqura.
Real Estate & Infrastructure
Crédit Agricole began scouting for a new UK headquarters, potentially departing its London home of almost four decades. Galvanize, co-founded by billionaire investor Tom Steyer, launched a $1 billion commercial real estate strategy designed to make buildings more resilient to soaring energy costs. Blue Owl has exposure to a collapsed UK lender, highlighting risks in the property lending market.
Technology & AI
Big tech stocks were expensive but are becoming more attractive as AI euphoria fades. Google CEO Sundar Pichai ft.com received a new pay deal worth up to $692 million, including stock options tied to share price and Waymo's growth. Anthropic nytimes.com is reportedly resuming talks with the Pentagon over use of its AI tools, with high stakes for both sides. The U.S. government ft.com is drawing up strict new AI guidelines amid the Anthropic clash, with draft rules mandating civilian contracts make models available for "any lawful" use.
Cryptocurrency & Blockchain
Crypto fans wsj.com have found alternatives to savings accounts through stablecoins, sparking concern among banks. Circle Internet Group bloomberg.com and Stripe are racing to build payments systems for a world where autonomous AI agents transact millions of times daily, settling in stablecoins. The case against stablecoins ft.com is being debated, with questions about whether they represent anything truly new in financial markets.
Middle East Conflict Impact
The war in Iran bloomberg.com is entering its seventh day with no peace talks being held, as President Trump demands unconditional surrender. Qatar bloomberg.com loaded its first LNG cargoes since declaring force majeure, while the UAE and Kuwait bloomberg.com started reducing oil production as the Strait of Hormuz closure ripples through energy markets. France, Italy, and Greece bloomberg.com are coordinating efforts to help ensure Red Sea shipping transit as tensions escalate. Azerbaijan ft.com reported being struck by an Iranian drone, highlighting the conflict's widening geographic scope.
Economic Indicators & Policy
A surprise drop in U.S. payrolls bloomberg.com cast doubt on the steadying job market, with nonfarm payrolls falling 92,000 in February and the unemployment rate rising. The Philippines bloomberg.com saw inflation hit a one-year high, potentially curbing further monetary easing ahead of expected price surges. China bloomberg.com urged at-risk people to undergo cancer screening tests as part of broader disease prevention efforts. Sri Lanka bloomberg.com believes it's in a "good position" to absorb oil price shocks from the Middle East conflict.
Aviation & Transportation
US airline stocks bloomberg.com slipped into a bear market as Wall Street warns that the Middle East war threatens to dramatically squeeze profits by driving up fuel costs. The conflict bloomberg.com is causing fuel crunches across import-dependent Asia, from Thai farmers racing for diesel to Indian refinery executives monitoring the Persian Gulf through the night. Ships in the Gulf ft.com are declaring themselves Chinese to dodge potential attacks, with at least 10 vessels changing transponder messages in apparent attempts to avoid becoming targets.
Corporate Developments
Pixar wsj.com is searching for its next hit franchise as the "Toy Story" studio hasn't made an original blockbuster in nearly a decade. Novo Nordisk bloomberg.com plans to sell its weight-loss drugs on Hims & Hers Health's platform, ending a highly public feud between the companies. UGG founder Brian Smith bloomberg.com discussed key principles of marketing that help build a brand in a Bloomberg interview. Vacheron Constantin ft.com is betting on culture and complications instead of volume, with its CEO emphasizing museum tie-ins as much as mechanics.