Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Turmoil Amid Mideast Conflict
Oil prices wsj.com surged to their fastest pace on record as the Iran war disrupted global supply, with Brent crude hitting new highs and sparking inflation fears across markets. The S&P 500 dropped sharply nytimes.com in its worst week since June, as investors grappled with the dual shocks of a weak jobs report and escalating Middle East tensions. European bond markets stabilized briefly bloomberg.com before renewed volatility hit, with energy-linked sectors bearing the brunt of the selloff.
Energy Crisis Deepens
The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed bloomberg.com for a sixth day, with only Iran-linked tankers making the crossing and forcing UAE and Kuwait to cut oil production bloomberg.com. LNG tankers bound for Europe were rerouted to Asia ft.com, intensifying competition for gas supplies and pushing freight rates to record highs. Turkey spent $12 billion bloomberg.com defending its lira as war-fueled turmoil spread across emerging markets, while the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained depleted ft.com after Biden-era drawdowns.
Private Credit Under Pressure
BlackRock slashed a private loan bloomberg.com from 100 to zero cents on the dollar, marking the second sudden wipeout in its portfolio and highlighting growing fragility in the sector. The private credit market bloomberg.com faces mounting pressure as war in Iran, a weakening US jobs market, and AI-driven industry disruption converge. High-grade European firms bloomberg.com finally returned to debt markets after a week-long absence, offering the first corporate deals since conflict erupted.
Tech and AI Developments
Google CEO Sundar Pichai ft.com received a new pay package worth up to $692 million, including stock options tied to Waymo's growth over three years. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic nytimes.com engaged in a deeply personal competition over Pentagon contracts, with negotiations and threats revealing the high-stakes battle for AI supremacy. Stablecoin firms bloomberg.com bet big on AI agent payments that barely exist, with Circle and Stripe racing to build systems for a future where autonomous agents transact millions of times daily.
Corporate Moves and M&A
Endeavour Mining wsj.com reported earnings boosted by higher gold prices, with total shareholder returns expected to more than double the company's minimum commitment. Chobani bloomberg.com expects over $1 billion in 2026 earnings as the Greek yogurt maker plans heavy investment in growth. Diana Shipping wsj.com increased its offer to acquire Genco, while Star Bulk Carriers agreed to acquire 16 vessels if the deal closes. KKR bloomberg.com seeks a $500 million loan to back its acquisition of a majority stake in school operator XCL Education Holdings.
Economic Data and Labor Market
US employers unexpectedly cut 92,000 jobs bloomberg.com in February, with the unemployment rate rising and pointing to lingering fragility in the labor market. The jobs report complicated an already volatile week, as markets had been choppy from the outset due to inflationary concerns from Middle East conflict. US retail sales sagged wsj.com in January, extending a tepid trend since late last year and adding to economic warning signs piling up for Republicans ahead of midterms.
Global Market Reactions
International funds wsj.com outperformed US counterparts, rising 9.3% in 2026 as non-US markets won the stock-fund Olympics. The weakening euro ft.com deepened pain from higher oil prices, while European energy fears pushed coal back into favor amid concerns about protracted Middle East conflict. Sub-6% mortgage rates bloomberg.com vanished as Iran war sparked inflation fears, with homebuyers who acted fast last week now facing higher costs.
Shipping and Trade Disruptions
Reinsurers tripled ship insurance costs bloomberg.com after the US submarine attack on Iranian vessels, with London-based providers canceling war risk coverage and demanding 200% more to reinstate policies. Flights remained disrupted wsj.com across the Gulf as missiles continued threatening aircraft, though some resumption occurred. Panama Canal bloomberg.com reported an unexpected jump in revenue, confounding forecasts that Trump's trade wars would cause traffic to drop.
Geopolitical Developments
India's Prime Minister Modi bloomberg.com stressed dialogue and diplomacy after the US sank an Iranian warship, saying military conflict cannot resolve problems. Retired General Wesley Clark bloomberg.com said the US-Israel offensive against Iran is off to a good start but the campaign is a "long way from being over." Former Iran, Venezuela envoy Elliott Abrams bloomberg.com believes President Trump will not put US boots on the ground despite tensions.
Financial Sector Updates
Lloyd Blankfein bloomberg.com warned of geopolitical risk amid "an anxious market," saying his experience suggests "a reckoning" is coming. Credit Agricole bloomberg.com began scouting options for a new London headquarters, potentially departing its UK home of almost four decades. Hargreaves Lansdown ft.com postponed fee rises but only for "valued" clients following a number of wealthier customers switching to rival platforms.
Emerging Market Impacts
Vietnam's trade deficit bloomberg.com narrowed in February even as exports and imports grew less than expected, with consumer prices spiking in a holiday-affected month. Sri Lanka bloomberg.com positioned itself to absorb oil price shocks, with the central bank governor saying the country is in a "good position" to handle the price volatility. Asian energy buyers bloomberg.com from Thai farmers to Indian refinery executives felt the impact of the dramatic fuel crunch as the Persian Gulf conflict intensified.
Alternative Assets and Private Markets
SpaceX's surging stake bloomberg.com raised doubts over private assets in ETFs, with a modest investment morphing into a monster position that tests the very capacity of exchange-traded funds to hold unlisted assets. BlackRock's retail private-credit hopes bloomberg.com ran into market angst as the firm's $12 billion HPS Investment Partners acquisition faced headwinds in selling juicy returns to retail investors. Private credit loan spreads ft.com remained tight despite growing concerns about sector stability.