US mortgage rates climbed back to 6% after briefly dipping below that threshold for the first time since September 2022, according to Freddie Mac data. The 30-year fixed-rate average rose from 5.98% last week, erasing a psychological milestone that had given homebuyers hope. A year ago, rates stood at 6.63%, making current levels still attractive for many buyers.

Housing economists warn that the new conflict with Iran could push rates higher if oil prices spike and inflation fears intensify. Brad Case, chief economist for Homes.com, said the Middle East tensions aren't severe enough to derail the spring buying season but could nudge rates upward. Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics added that a prolonged conflict would weigh heavily on household confidence and economic growth.

For now, the housing market remains in a precarious position. While rates are down from last year's peaks, affordability remains a challenge for many Americans. Ryan Paquin, a Maryland mortgage broker, reported that some buyers rushed to lock in rates last week while others gambled on further declines. The coming weeks will test whether the spring sales momentum can withstand both higher borrowing costs and geopolitical uncertainty.