Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan warned that war-related prediction contracts face growing resistance as geopolitical betting volumes surge. Speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2026, Coplan acknowledged the controversial nature of wagering on conflict, noting that rising visibility brings both opportunities and challenges.

Bettors placed $425.4 million in geopolitical wagers on Polymarket in the week ending March 1, up from $163.9 million the previous week. While US regulations prohibit financial contracts tied to war, Polymarket's offshore exchange continues to operate in this space. Coplan defended the platform's utility, citing users in the Middle East who consult prediction markets for safety decisions.

Coplan argued that prediction markets provide informational value distinct from traditional trading, comparing the dynamics to apples and oranges. The industry faces scrutiny over insider trading risks, with regulators still developing frameworks. Meanwhile, Polymarket and rival Kalshi are reportedly seeking funding at $20 billion valuations each, signaling strong investor confidence despite the controversy.