War-related turmoil in energy markets has boosted thermal coal prices by 20% since US strikes on Iran, hitting $135 per tonne. This surge stems from gas supply disruptions, like Qatar's shutdowns, making coal a cheaper power source. Europe's coal-fired capacity has plummeted 40% since 2022, though stockpiles exist.

China's dominant coal role persists despite green tech leadership. Indonesia may reverse export cuts if prices stay high, while Trump's push for US coal revives consumption. Climate policies face pressure, but higher energy prices ensure coal's lumpy appeal persists.