Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Turmoil and Oil Shock
US stocks wsj.com tumbled Friday after a shocking February jobs report showed payrolls fell 92,000, the biggest decline since the pandemic. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both dropped about 1% while the Dow industrials fell roughly 550 points as investors grappled with signs of labor market fragility. Gasoline prices bloomberg.com surged to their highest level under President Trump, jumping 14% in a week as the Iran conflict disrupted energy supplies. Energy markets wsj.com were rocked by the outbreak of war in the Persian Gulf, where roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply originates. Oil prices wsj.com skyrocketed at their fastest pace on record, with some analysts warning "triple-digit" prices are possible if the Iran war extends.
Economic Fallout Spreads
The economic fallout from the Mideast war is spreading outside the region, pushing up oil and fertilizer prices while rattling global trade. A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, according to the IMF. South Africa's finance minister bloomberg.com sounded the alarm over oil spikes, while Sri Lanka's central bank governor bloomberg.com said the country is in a "good position" to absorb price shocks. India is turning back to Russian oil nytimes.com after the Middle East conflict cut off alternative supplies, despite a recent trade deal with Trump aimed at ending such imports.
Financial Sector Strains
Financial firms bloomberg.com slid Friday as fresh worries over private credit combined with the broad market selloff to hit the weakened sector. Banks and asset manager stocks fell as credit concerns persisted, with insurers' bond moves seen as "overdone" by Goldman Sachs. BlackRock's retail private-credit hopes bloomberg.com ran into market angst as the firm's $12 billion HPS Investment Partners acquisition faces headwinds. Secondary buyers wsj.com are eyeing private-credit assets as redemptions mount, with a rise in discounted secondary deals expected as wealthy investors seek exits from interval funds and BDCs.
Geopolitical Risks Mount
Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein bloomberg.com warned that his experience tells him "a reckoning" is coming amid geopolitical risk in "an anxious market." European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde bloomberg.com urged global leaders to find a "basic code of conduct" to work together as technological innovation needs cooperation. Germany secured a US sanctions exemption for a Rosneft refinery, sparing Berlin from major fuel supply disruptions. The US granted a temporary license bloomberg.com allowing Indian refiners to tap Iranian oil supplies, highlighting the complex energy dynamics at play.
Technology and AI Disruption
AI chipmaker Cerebras bloomberg.com tapped Morgan Stanley for an IPO return as the artificial intelligence company mounts a renewed attempt to go public. Tiger Global alum's firm bloomberg.com bets on prying people off their screens, with Greg Mazlin and Matthew Lloyd-Thomas wagering that hybrid work and AI will allow more people to be more active. OpenAI and Anthropic's nytimes.com competition is deeply personal, with a fight over Pentagon contracts exposing how the leaders of Silicon Valley's two most important AI startups are feuding over the future of the tech industry. Big Tech's uncertain future nytimes.com in the Persian Gulf has been added as new risks to the trillions of dollars in investments that tech companies have planned in the region.
Corporate Moves and Market Signals
Chobani expects over $1 billion bloomberg.com in 2026 earnings as the Greek yogurt maker plans to spend heavily on growth. Day One agreed to a $2.5 billion sale wsj.com to Servier, expanding the French pharmaceutical company's oncology portfolio with a 68% premium to the biotech firm's closing price. Axel Springer agreed to buy the UK's Telegraph nytimes.com for $766 million, the latest twist for the influential British newspaper whose ownership had been in limbo for years. AtaiBeckley is exploring options bloomberg.com for its flagship psychedelic drug candidate with advisers, according to people familiar with the matter.
Market Technicalities and Derivatives
Bond traders bloomberg.com see increasing chances of no Fed cuts this year as the intensifying Middle East conflict boosts oil prices and threatens to push up inflation. Treasuries bloomberg.com pared their biggest weekly loss since April on labor and oil angst, complicating the case for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Traders are snatching up derivatives bloomberg.com as risks grow, with war in Iran, a weakening US jobs market, and pressure on private credit driving demand for hedging instruments. The new war in the Middle East has given fresh relevance to the legal term "force majeure," a clause buried in many contracts that lets a party off the hook in the event of some unforeseeable circumstance.
Regional Market Impacts
Colombia's local debt bloomberg.com saw a selloff turn to rally on oil surge, converting from the worst performing in emerging markets to the leading gainer as higher oil prices driven by the Iran war sparked a rally. Hong Kong's commercial property market bloomberg.com is seeing a "great rebound" according to Hongkong Land's CEO, while South Korea's president bloomberg.com highlighted the nation's 100 trillion won ($68.2 market stabilization program amid historic volatility. Brazil's Embraer bloomberg.com shares fell after the aircraft manufacturer reported fourth-quarter adjusted net income that missed estimates as US tariffs and higher financial expenses weighed on results. Panama was surprised by higher canal traffic bloomberg.com amid Trump's trade wars, confounding its own forecasts that traffic would drop.