Last updated: September 15, 2026, 10:01 PM ET
Treasury Yields Cross 5%
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to the highest level in almost two decades, touching 5.04% on Tuesday ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision, a milestone last breached in 2007. The benchmark breached levels not seen since the eve of the financial crisis, with intensifying oil prices and inflation concerns compounding the move. The yield hit 5.04% as traders weighed persistent inflation and higher-for-longer interest rate expectations. The global bond selloff deepened as yields on 10-year notes across major markets hit multiyear highs. UK gilts joined the rout in a broad repricing of sovereign debt. The key borrowing benchmark is either bumping along a post-financial crisis high or breaking into territory that historically reshapes equity valuations. Treasury yields are closing in on an inflection point where stocks and bonds have historically suffered simultaneous losses. Expectations for Fed policy are driving the recent moves in long-term rates, suggesting they could come down as fast as they climbed. Japanese government bonds fell after the government was said to be considering a defense spending increase. Indian short-end bonds slumped the most in four years after the central bank signaled sovereign note sales to drain cash. India's yield premium over Treasuries hit a 22-year low, with August inflation data reducing the scope for the RBI to stay on hold.
Fed Decision Looms
Bond traders have piled into bearish positions ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision, betting on a rate hike. Traders are pricing in a Fed hike with roughly 90% probability, and history suggests the central bank will deliver. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates, putting Kevin Warsh on a collision course with President Trump. Why Warsh might surprise markets remains an open question that history offers little help in answering. Traders are diverging from ECB and BOE officials on how far rates will rise. Stock investors should root for a hike, with the market assigning a 90.3% chance to the move.
US Equities Slide
US stocks fell on Tuesday after the benchmark Treasury yield touched its highest since 2007. Equities fell ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision as yields and oil prices pressured valuations. US stock futures retreated Tuesday with Brent crude climbing to $108 a barrel as Saudi Arabia's supply disruptions persisted. The S&P 500 faced the highest 10-year yield since 2007, with Brent crude at $108 and futures lower. Traders are gaming out what a 5% 10-year yield spells for US stocks during a historically volatile stretch. Tech ETFs saw massive inflows this summer, leaving lopsided bets exposed to the AI stock selloff.
Oil and Energy
Oil futures rose amid market pessimism about flows out of the Middle East following strikes on Saudi infrastructure. Brent crude futures rose to $107.59 but remained below Monday's intraday high as supply concerns persisted. Oil prices climbed higher as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 2007 levels and the Senate dealt a blow to crypto legislation. Russia boosted crude exports by the most since May as strikes on Saudi infrastructure drove prices higher. China's yuan-priced crude futures rallied to the highest level on record. The average US diesel price hit a fresh record of $6.27 a gallon as the fuel squeeze intensified. California gasoline and diesel purchases haven't collapsed but a long-term behavioral shift is underway as prices soar. French evening power prices neared €300 as low nuclear availability tightened the system. Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised relief for German drivers on surging gas prices, pledging action on "price gouging." Rising fuel prices set off protests from Indonesia to Guatemala to Syria as shortages and price increases fueled public anger. Copper advanced as traders weighed an easing supply squeeze and Fed rate path bets.
Credit and Private Markets
Credit investors are finally being paid to take risk, according to Oaktree Capital. Blackstone is seeking at least $8 billion for its private credit fund focused on green infrastructure. Blackstone is working through a backlog of investors who asked to pull capital, with flows expected to return to private credit. KKR doubled the amount of private investment-grade financing it structured, with deals surpassing $80 billion this year. A niche fund manager is betting on battered 50-cent long bonds in a high-risk gambit as investors dump long-term debt. Hedge funds face scrutiny over their growing Treasury market footprint. With Treasuries sinking and the dollar falling this year, Bitcoin and gold are diverging in the debasement trade ahead of the Fed decision. If you buy and hold a leveraged ETF, anything can happen. Large institutions are alternating between equity funds to save millions in taxes using BlackRock and Vanguard ETFs. Truist Financial agreed to sell $5.5 billion of auto loans as it exits near-prime lending. Brightshore Capital, formerly GTIS Partners, launched a $250 million property debt platform. Brookfield is nearing a recapitalization of Center Parcs at a $6 billion valuation.
Crypto and Digital Assets
A landmark US crypto bill failed in the Senate as lawmakers split over Trump ethics concerns, a massive setback for an industry that spent record sums lobbying. Coin Ex said it was ceasing operations less than three months after a Wall Street Journal report on illicit Iran cash flows. Federal prosecutors said proceeds from Iranian oil sales flowed through Binance, with two Chinese firms accused of laundering. The Justice Department filed a forfeiture lawsuit to seize $61 million in alleged proceeds from Iranian oil deals routed through Binance. Prosecutors said around $1.5 billion was sent to Iran through a series of transactions, with the US seeking $61 million in crypto forfeiture. Five years after Adam Aron and Vlad Tenev became defining figures of the meme-stock era, the AMC-Robinhood feud is testing who gets to put stocks on blockchains. Hackers claimed to have breached Italian state email, posing as law enforcement for months to target Revolut "crypto whales."
Deals and Corporate News
Vitol Group paid $75 million to buy out a former employee charged with corruption after his conviction. Glencore accused Radiant World and associated companies of sending falsified invoices, escalating a bitter dispute. Radiant World and Sapphire Minmetals filed a lawsuit against Glencore for $2 billion. Iron ore trader Radiant alleged Glencore hid their ties from audited records, while the Swiss commodities group called the claims "meritless." Essity AB is preparing to kick off the sales process for its consumer tissue business, with a sale or possible 2027 listing on the table. Grab agreed to buy a 60% stake in Atome Financial for $1.49 billion in cash. Asian private equity firms are circling Alpinestars, the Italian motorcycle gear maker valued at €1 billion. European stock exchanges must raise a further $5 billion from IPOs this fall to beat 2025's haul. Dangote Petroleum Refinery's $1.6 billion IPO has a low entry price that could draw millions of Nigerians to the stock market. Tata Group companies with minority ownership of Tata Sons jumped after the RBI renewed an IPO push. Zorlu Enerji's bond is poised for its biggest drop on record after the Turkish energy firm hired debt advisers. Moody's agreed to acquire a minority stake in Philippine Rating Services. SoftBank-backed SB Energy is aiming to raise $500 million in a Japan IPO for its AI data center business. Private equity faces new AI competition as a Dell-led bid won Baldwin Group. Sullivan & Cromwell hired a team of Kirkland partners in a private equity push, a shift for the white-shoe firm. Vera Bradley's shares jumped after the company swung to a fiscal second-quarter profit, with the CEO saying the turnaround is bearing fruit. AXA said earnings should keep growing over the next few years after its reorganization. Santander won a £677mn legal appeal over a PPI mis-selling bill, with the Court of Appeal overturning an earlier ruling. KPMG will cut another 200 jobs in its UK advisory business, the latest round of redundancies in data and technology. Larry Ellison may have little choice but to sell Oracle shares if he wants to raise cash, showing even billionaires struggle with liquidity. Takis Georgakopoulos became chief executive of Fiserv just as it confronted major challenges, taking on Wall Street's toughest turnaround job.
US Economy and Policy
Median household income rose to a record $87,460 in 2025, with the poverty rate stable before Trump's safety net cuts gained force. Treasury Secretary Bessent, testifying before Congress, defended his bond market intervention and said he supported giving the Fed more room. Bessent testified on the economy and the Iran war. US manufacturers are facing a fresh burst of supply chain cost inflation as Trump's Iran war and tariffs push up input prices while the AI boom squeezes capacity. Canada's wholesale sales rose 0.3% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted 93.09 billion. Prime Minister Mark Carney is expanding the scope of a major investment tax write-off to pipelines, mining and more. Carney brought together about 100 money managers in Toronto to pitch Canada as a haven of investment stability. Canada's proposed productivity mega deduction would lower the effective tax rate by a meaningful margin. The Dutch government will propose a capital gains levy next year to break a reform deadlock. The Fed's system for monitoring banks, the National Information Center, suffered an outage last month, disrupting a data system used by regulators. The CFTC is conducting a broad probe into voluntary carbon credits as market scrutiny grows. Exxon Mobil won Texas approval for a $5 billion carbon capture project after a lengthy battle over safety and subsidies. A federal judge dealt a setback to Susquehanna International Group's insider trading lawsuit, calling the case into doubt. The US sanctioned a Russian bank in the latest target of its campaign against Iran, while Trump said AI doesn't need more guardrails.
Geopolitics and Energy Security
President Trump approved a $2.8 billion arms sale to Israel including 40,000 one-ton bombs, among the largest US munitions deliveries to Israel. Trump's Iran war has cost the US $38 billion and caused a munitions shortfall, according to new federal reports. The Congressional Budget Office said its analysis of the $38 billion Iran war cost was limited by data constraints. Gulf Arabs are seeking options after US bases failed to deter Iran, with the American presence failing to shield them from retaliation. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed met Abdel Fattah al-Sisi for security talks after 13 were killed in Houthi attacks. The Houthis are increasingly using artificial intelligence and other tools to produce weapons, reducing dependence on Iran. The two sides traded accusations of attacks as fighting inside Yemen remained fierce. Iran's proxy militia is threatening to block Saudi oil exports from the Red Sea. Carriers are shifting more containerships through the Red Sea despite Houthi gains, while malls prove more resilient than expected. Denmark said a Russian warship fired flares at a military helicopter, the latest in a string of airspace incidents. Ukraine and Russia denied Trump's claims of an energy truce, with the Kremlin calling an agreement "a very good idea" but declining to confirm one. Recent high-profile deals allowing foreign drillers to tap Venezuela's vast oil reserves are "smoke and mirrors," according to Pickering. Energy executives in Venezuela are frantically trying to understand Trump's oil deal, which is either deeply flawed or too big to fail. Venezuela's central bank is moving to squeeze liquidity in the banking system as higher spending tests the bolivar. A close financial fixer for ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro pleaded guilty in a US money-laundering case. An attempt to use digital currencies for a bold oil trade became one of Poland's biggest scandals, costing $230 million. Russia's MMC Norilsk Nickel is talking with a new Chinese partner about processing copper. US Air Force Secretary Troy E. Meink confirmed the US has deployed weapons in space, the first public acknowledgment. Countries outside the Gulf increased market share of urea exports as supplies through the region were disrupted, easing food crisis fears.
Asia-Pacific Markets
Asian stocks were poised to edge higher Wednesday even as surging oil prices and the Fed decision loomed. Emerging-market stocks and currencies fell for a fourth session as rising global yields and oil prices bit. The Singapore dollar weakened against its US counterpart in the Asian session on rising Treasury yields. The Thai baht's recent decline is set to bolster Thailand's export and tourism prospects, an official said. China's top iron and steel industry body called on mills to rein in output and inventories. China's AI listings glut dragged Hong Kong stocks lower, highlighting weak global demand. Indonesia's state-owned banks face rising credit and earnings risks after government intervention, S&P warned. Nickel Industries halted the ramp-up of one of its Indonesian processing plants on a water shortage. South Korea plans to cut new transmission towers by as much as 40% and put more lines underground. A company linked to Grupo Traxion's executive president made a tender offer as share liquidity and price dropped. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Assistant Governor Karen Silk will leave at the end of the year. Kyrgyzstan's economy grew by 11 percent last year, partly fueled by the war in Ukraine. Architects of Japan's easy-money policies are changing their minds as the Bank of Japan weighs another rate increase Friday.
China and Trade
China is tightening control of overseas travel in a sweeping new law, with President Xi Jinping stepping up efforts to secure state secrets and advanced technology. The measure steps up efforts to protect state secrets and advanced technology. International flows into American equities exceeded government debt for the first time, a rare foreign capital shift. The UK's fiscal realities are closing in on Downing Street, alongside the Supreme Court blocking Trump's mail-in vote curbs. The UK government's move to grant legal protection to English whisky risks adding to other challenges facing Scotland's embattled Scotch sector. An official review found the Help to Buy scheme was "very high value for money," even as ministers prepared a new version. FTSE 100 chief executives received an increase in pay this year, with the average reaching a record £5.1 million as investor rebellions died down. The Observer raised £10 million in a new funding round, with Guardian owner the Scott Trust opting not to participate. Norway's Telenor was charged with aiding crimes against humanity in Myanmar, with authorities saying the telecoms group handed sensitive customer data to the military. Luxembourg is probing Gazprombank ex-managers following an FT investigation that found four former directors enriched themselves. Sanjeev Gupta's heart condition delayed the Greensill trial, with medical reports citing long-haul flight and prolonged questioning risks. Europe risks losing the race for gallium, a key high-tech metal, as Metlen warns European buyers favor cheaper Chinese supply. JLR is pitching its revamped Defender to Nato militaries, building on its longstanding relationship with British armed forces. Rolex chose to unveil its latest Padellone watch in Milan, named after a frying pan.
AI, Tech and Regulation
At a Washington event, Steve Bannon and Bernie Sanders condemned tech "oligarchs" and demanded AI reforms as partisanship took a back seat. The AI regulation debate has drawn unlikely allies including David Sacks and Lina Khan, and Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon. Congress has proposed many bills to address AI's greatest risks, but lawmakers have enacted few. A New York Times/Siena poll found AI unpopular with voters as fears grow, with neither party claiming a clear advantage. The "But China!" dilemma is driving the AI race as the US weighs regulating its industry without surrendering to China. China and the US must work to repair the damage AI has done now, not later. Nvidia chief Jensen Huang distanced himself from OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX's efforts, calling the battle over AI innovation and safety a "false choice." OpenAI is adding tools and features to woo both top talent and advertisers. The Gates Foundation pledged $1 billion to combat AI inequality, with Bill Gates vocal about the dangers of artificial intelligence. Universities sound warnings about AI even as they embrace it, with leaders all over the map. Rome-based Exein raised $270 million to fight AI hackers with AI, developing a foundation model to protect billions of connected devices. AI is being adopted rapidly by audit firms such as KPMG and EY, though the technology still needs human oversight. Investors must decide how to interpret the labs' calls for a slowdown. An aging press can show its value by finding the real story amid the hype. Hugging Face wouldn't have happened if nobody had given the system the power to fail. This isn't the first time great scientific minds have warned of humanity's destruction. Something's cooking in the great British and American fork in the road, raising questions about institutional uncertainty and AI extinction risk.
Washington and Politics
The House killed a bid to impeach Trump as dozens of Democrats declined to register a position on articles of impeachment. The Supreme Court blocked the Trump administration's plan to screen mail-in ballots, with the administration having asked justices to allow a new Postal Service plan. The justices rejected presidential overreach on mail voting and a few key issues, taking their time and picking their spots. Trump slammed the Supreme Court over the mail-in voting ruling, saying "these are not the people." States are working to restore trust in mail voting after Trump's efforts were thwarted. Groups are preparing thousands of observers for November midterms amid rising distrust. Kash Patel suggested FBI agents could go to election polling sites, sparking Democratic alarm, though federal law prohibits armed officers at polls. A Times/Siena poll suggests Republicans are reeling and a blue wave may be building. Democrats gained a midterm edge as Trump drags down Republicans, with even some Republicans losing faith in Trump's economy. Zohran Mamdani, the New York City mayor and democratic socialist, was viewed more favorably even as half of voters dislike socialism. New polling shows Democrats have midterms momentum as Trump calls AI fears "a hoax." The Kennedy Center closed its doors despite a judge's order, after Trump said he would cancel a $257 million renovation. Trump threatened to cancel the Kennedy Center renovation as the world reacted to rising prices. Trump has untethered himself from reality, with distortions affecting more than belief in his claims. Jimmy Fallon mocked Trump's AI comments, saying "I don't even think Trump can beat Wordle." Three stories from inside the immigration crackdown examine the enforcement push. Immigration has become a prism through which all of Europe's ills are viewed.
Media and Entertainment
Apple took home the most trophies at this year's Emmys, breaking the chokehold HBO and Netflix held on the awards. The Apple TV horror-comedy "Widow's Bay" took home 14 Emmys, including top honors. The full list of winners from the 78th Emmy Awards is available. "60 Minutes" drew just under 8 million viewers for Sunday's season premiere, down 21 percent from the prior year. Readers selected their favorites, with thousands choosing the three winners they would change. Three writers assessed the Emmys, asking whether peak TV has arrived. The telecast hosted by Mariska Hargitay delivered plenty of history alongside its best and worst moments. Candid moments with Stephen Colbert, Megan Stalter, Rachel Sennott and Matthew Rhys were captured at the ceremony. Bold colors and smart takes on classic suiting created memorable looks on the red carpet. Readers joined the discussion on the red carpet fashion. Danny Meyer, the man behind Shake Shack and a suite of influential restaurants, serves up regrets in a new memoir. The NoHo Hospitality Group reimagines the dining room at the Public Theater, reviving the Astor family name.
Health and Society
Pennsylvania officials reported a fourth measles death as the outbreak grows, making this the deadliest year for measles in the US in decades. A data center's spill of 5,000 gallons of diesel forced a river cleanup in New Jersey after fuel poured from a storage tank in Secaucus. New York City transportation officials deployed a high-pressure water truck called the Stripe Hog to blast markings for bus lanes. Mamdani unveiled a street safety plan called Vision Zero Reimagined, including speed-capping goals to curb pedestrian deaths. Prosecutors will not seek the death penalty for Nick Reiner, who has a history of serious mental illness and is accused of a fatal attack. Siranudh Scott, an heir to Thailand's Singha beer empire, prompted a rare public reckoning after accusing his brother of sexual abuse. Jamie Beaton has 12 advanced degrees from Harvard, Yale, Oxford and other top universities, making him possibly the world's most educated person. Gilt Groupe gave many employees their first taste of startup culture, paving the way for female founders in New York. CVS is accelerating its clone strategy, while Target concluded a two-year search for a marketing chief. Retail executives are debating how to approach the holiday shopping season and whether extensive AI oversight is needed. México busca reactivar el crecimiento en su sector turístico apostando por viajeros chinos ante la caída de los turistas de mayor gasto.
Market Roundups
Insight on global auto sales, Volkswagen and Renault is available in the latest Market Talk. Insight on European oil stocks and SK Innovation is featured in the latest roundup. Insight on European semiconductor companies, Vodafone Group and LG Electronics is included in the tech, media and telecom roundup. European semiconductor shares were mixed after Monday's rout, with the Nikkei dropping amid chip stocks and geopolitical tension. A federal judge called into doubt the Susquehanna insider trading case. Private credit marks remain under scrutiny as BPRE's NAV discount widens post-listing. It's crunch time for Bone Support, one of Europe's most shorted stocks. An Oxford spin-off is developing low-cost jet engines for drones, backed by the Ministry of Defence. Hyrox's new owners hope to turn burpees into billions by expanding into clothing and accessories. LVMH's Frédéric Arnault admits to feeling pressure in his new role as Arnault siblings vie to succeed, prioritizing scarcity over growth at Loro Piana. Zach Dell, son of the PC billionaire, is building a network of batteries in US homes, with Base Power hitting a $13 billion valuation to solve the AI energy crunch. Next-generation geothermal developers are borrowing techniques from oil and gas to tap previously inaccessible heat. Clean ammonia and methanol are key to reducing vessels' large greenhouse gas emissions. Tidal power promises predictable power if its backers can overcome scaling challenges. British businesses can submit a question on what they need from the Budget in a live Ask an Expert Q&A.