Public Markets 8 Hours

Last updated: August 31, 2026, 2:59 PM ET

Rates & Macro

The 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.75% on Monday for the first time since January 2025, as rising oil prices bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates. The dollar is on pace to fall for a second straight month as US plans to accelerate buyback of government debt weighed on the greenback. JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s trading desk is shifting to a "tactically cautious" view on US stocks, dropping its bullish stance for the next few weeks after hawkish remarks by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh led markets to boost rate-hike bets. The outlook for S&P 500 earnings growth is bright, but technicians remain cautious ahead of September, historically the benchmark's worst month.

Energy & Commodities

Oil prices rose after an exchange of fire between the US and Iran ended weeks of relative quiet, with President Donald Trump saying he will hit the country "hard". While crude carriers have rebounded through the Strait of Hormuz, LNG exports remain stalled, keeping prices of the super-chilled fuel near war-time highs. US natural gas futures started the week lower even as warmer-than-normal weather extending well into September maintains some price support. Trump's Venezuela deal for a US stake in 65 billion barrels of oil leaves a US$100 billion question unanswered, falling short of certainty on how costs and revenues will be split.

Utilities & Credit

Bonds of PG&E Corp. and Edison International broadly weakened on Monday after California lawmakers rebuffed a key provision of Governor Gavin Newsom's plan to shift wildfire liabilities. Shares of the utilities plunged alongside Sempra following the unfavorable legislation, which prompted a wave of analyst downgrades. The US Agriculture Department is easing beef regulations for ranchers and small meat processors to appease domestic producers. Meanwhile, the SEC is planning to scrap rules governing shareholder proxy proposals, according to a new post by the Office of Management and Budget.

Deals & IPOs

Anthropic PBC's IPO is casting a long shadow over companies' US listing plans, as they try to find room for their deals after the Sept. 7 Labor Day holiday. Shanghai Enflame Technology Co., backed by Tencent Holdings Ltd., is seeking to raise about 6.12 billion yuan ($911 million) in an initial public offering, as the last of the so-called "four little dragons" lists. ONEOK agreed to acquire Brazos Midstream's Permian Midland Basin natural gas gathering and processing assets for $4.43 billion, expanding its footprint in the prolific US oil hub. SLB, the oil drilling and production company, agreed to acquire thermal management company Kelvion for $4.1 billion to strengthen its growing data center business.

Regional Markets

Adani Group companies erased 1.4 trillion rupees ($15 billion) in market value, the most in about 21 months, as India's closing auction drove sharp swings during a scheduled MSCI index rebalance. Chilean investors are dipping a toe into lower-rated corporate bonds on bets that the new administration's economic reform under President José Antonio Kast will revive growth. Colombia's incoming administration plans to raise about $11 billion and carry out debt swaps to manage its 2026 financing needs, public credit director Cesar Arias told market makers. In Brazil, banks are poaching hedge-fund stars as the industry's boom goes bust, with Arminio Fraga turning his funds over to the country's fourth-biggest bank.

Litigation & Regulation

Citadel accused Marshall Wace of failing to adhere to a court order to hand over documents relating to the British hedge fund group's recruitment of former Citadel portfolio manager Daniel Shatz, calling the move "stonewalling" in the ongoing dispute. Kalshi has barred George Santos for life and fined him $71,356 over insider trading evidence, with the platform also issuing a lifetime ban after the CFTC case. The EU has designated ChatGPT, Reddit and Roblox as "very large online platforms" under the bloc's Digital Services Act, subjecting them to stricter transparency and risk-management obligations.

Private Credit & AI

Australian private credit funds are trying to contain investor panic after the collapse of property developer Bathla Group, which sparked fears that the industry's big bet on property is going sour. Private equity groups face a $40bn maturity wall in 2028 to refinance Covid-era software buybacks, and software firms are paying steep prices to buy time against the AI threat. Engine Capital is pushing EPAM Systems for share buybacks as investors position for AI to hurt consultancies. Given the climate-related chaos affecting supply chains, Ernst & Young is giving $100 million in bonuses to staff for "human" skills like critical thinking and judgment to better work alongside AI.

Fixed Income & FX

California's state spending is at the center of a WSJ article cautioning that voters, if taxed too much, will leave, presenting a quiet bond risk. The dollar weakened as concerns over US holdings and oil prices rebounded. The strongest El Niño in a generation is wreaking havoc on the global economy, with impacts on industries worldwide. Canada's small and midsize businesses are seen bearing the brunt of new tariffs, while some companies are using tariff refunds for price cuts.

Tech & Crypto

Following a 10-week pause, Strategy Inc. has resumed Bitcoin purchases, spending $370 million; the move comes after the crypto bear market pressured its shares and weakened confidence in its financing structure. Game Stop expects net income of $290 million to $310 million for its 13 weeks ended Aug. 1, up from $168.6 million last year, despite lower sales, the videogame retailer said. The First Index Investment Trust is celebrating its 50th anniversary, witness to the rise of passive investing. Amid broader artificial intelligence upheaval, the S&P 500 earnings season was blockbuster and strategy groups raised year-end targets, but that has not yet eased bond market risk.

Sector & Cross-Asset Roundups

In the energy and transport sector, Toyota Motor and Maersk were the focus of the latest Market Talk analyses, while a separate survey covered Tencent, Apple and Hana Microelectronics in technology, media and telecom. The US Open golf tournament saw brand activations go from advertising to social media, with notable misfires from top sponsors, described in a consumer-facing report. Meanwhile, the El Niño threat disrupts industrial companies globally, with effects via heatwaves and cyclones impacting supply chains.

Other Headlines

The Grand Canyon flooding death toll rose to two with more than a dozen unaccounted for, while a flood in Nepal saw a principal save 900 students before his school was washed away. The ferret community gathered at the largest show in the US, a shrinking subculture fighting to survive. A principal in Nepal had less than 15 minutes to act on a warning of approaching floodwaters, but his swift evacuation plan saved hundreds of lives.

Political Landscape

The Massachusetts Senate primary features the octogenarian Senator Ed Markey against a much younger Representative Seth Moulton, a generational fight with a centrism twist. AI's deep questions are so profound that if given access to email, AI agents have started reaching out to researchers uninvited. Elsewhere, ex-Congressman George Santos is the subject of a NYT piece about Kalshi's lifetime ban, and a profile of ferrets and their owners with "I work, I sleep, I eat, I ferret" leitmotif, which is a fascinating subculture piece.