Public Markets
Last updated: August 28, 2026, 9:30 AM ET
Markets Overview
U.S. stock futures were mixed ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech, while Treasury yields edged higher for a second day. The S&P 500 gained on Thursday after Nvidia’s rosy forecast. European stocks were set for a fifth straight monthly gain before central banker speeches, though the region faces seasonal risks after the extended rally. Asian stocks were expected to open mildly lower as traders braced for a potentially hawkish tone from Warsh. The Nikkei rose 0.4%, led by IT services stocks following overnight gains in U.S. technology shares. FTSE 100 futures pointed to a rebound, with the pound holding below $1.36.
Jackson Hole Preview
Traders expect to be frustrated by Warsh’s speech, urging the tight-lipped Fed chair to be forceful on inflation. History shows the Fed chief rarely shocks the stock market at Jackson Hole, and investors suggest the speech may disappoint those hoping for fireworks. Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett sees Warsh on a yield tightrope — if he gets the speech right, it could flatten the yield curve, bolster risk appetite and support the dollar. A chorus of investors including JPMorgan and Apollo are urging Warsh to provide a strong rebuke of high inflation to boost the long end of the Treasury market. Bof A’s Savita Subramanian continues to take "flak" for her street-low S&P 500 call. The new "regime change" between the Fed and Treasury could fuel a bond rally, according to UBS’s Citrini, as the debt management approach shifts toward shorter-dated debt.
Fixed Income & FX
Global bond yields rose ahead of the speech, with the 10-year Bund yield hitting a 15-year high as eurozone bonds remained vulnerable to elevated energy prices. The Treasury auctioned $44 billion in seven-year notes at a 4.512% yield, the highest since December 2024. Japan’s two-year bond auction showed weaker demand amid growing speculation of central bank tightening. Mexico sold a ¥282.8 billion ($1.77 billion) Samurai bond — its first in two years. UBS launched its debut panda bond sale at a record-low rate as international issuers seek cheaper borrowing costs. Nippon Life, Japan’s largest insurer, said it may become a net JGB buyer next fiscal year. Pimco says "too much, too fast" AI debt is stoking yields — but expects decent longer-term returns for investors. The Wall Street debate continues over Treasury policy and carry trades, with some arguing the bond market chaos is coming for us all. However, strategists caution against drawing the wrong conclusion from Treasury yield moves, as investors are marking up expectations for long-run economic growth in the U.S. Don't assume 5% Treasuries are crushing emerging markets — owning EM bonds hasn't been so terrible in the past year.
The yen intervention gains are fading about a month after Japan and the U.S. coordinated action to prop up the yen — it slowed the currency's decline but didn't alter fundamentals. Japan spent a record(-breaking) ¥98.7 billion on yen intervention in the past month. Asian currencies consolidated ahead of Warsh's speech. The Philippine peso weakened past 62 per dollar on elevated oil prices. The yuan remained calm despite U.S. threats of sanctions over China's ties to Iran. De-dollarization may not be over — the recent pickup in the dollar's share of global FX reserves does not amount to a trend reversal.
Equities
Nvidia added $442 billion in market value on Thursday — the chip maker's stock posted its steepest climb in a year after breaking its post-earnings curse with its second-largest surge ever. The chip maker insists it can keep printing money and help finance the AI boom. However, Nvidia paused revenue-sharing deals with AI cloud companies less than two months after announcing the program. Meanwhile, Alphabet lost $692 billion in market value as questions arise over returns from AI-related spending at Meta. Alphabet also agreed to pay £260 million in a UK class action lawsuit settlement for overcharging Play Store developers. Meta's $18 billion settlement shows the wrong way to keep kids safe. Meanwhile PayPal shares plunged 15% in premarket trading to $52.50 on reports Advent and Stripe abandoned a takeover plan. Gap cut its sales outlook on Old Navy weakness and brought in Michael Francis as CEO; Ulta Beauty raised its full-year EPS forecast to $28.70–$29.00; Workday reported Q2 profit of $632 million, up from $228 million last year. Marvell sees accelerating growth as AI demand boost Q2 profit and revenue, raising its annual forecast. U.S. stocks rose on the rosy Nvidia view.
The Solstice–Element Solutions deal was canceled after shareholder feedback. AQR Capital is contesting the price of the $8.4 billion Clearwater Analytics buyout. Banca Generali is mulling a $10 billion takeover bid from Monte di Paschi. Samsung Biologics is raising $2.2 billion to fund a Poly Peptide Group acquisition.
China & Asia
BYD’s net profit rose for the first time since five quarters on exports and surging demand for higher-priced models. The company needs to continue EV success overseas to sustain a stock rally that added nearly $20 billion to its market value. Meituan returned to profit as food delivery competition eased. CXMT, one of China’s biggest memory chip makers, posted a sharp jump in first-half sales amid an AI-driven memory shortage. China’s large-cap stocks may be poised for a comeback as the Nifty lags small-cap gauges. India’s new closing auction led to a 3% flash crash in the BSE Sensex. In one striking example, an options contract surged 4,000% in 15 minutes. The mechanism, which has been in place for nearly a month, continues to produce unexpected swings, as traders explain in a Q&A.
Chinese nickel firms in Indonesia are mulling coordinated output cuts on low prices, as pressure mounts on profitability. China’s oil majors reveal a nation less reliant on imports, which could signal a bigger problem for global crude exporters than for Beijing.
Private Equity & Deals
Apollo is acquiring a co-controlling stake in Atlantic Aviation at a valuation of nearly $10 billion. Private jet firm Vista Global is exploring a $1 billion European IPO. On the other hand, private credit investors in Sydney builder Bathla Group are facing losses after the developer fell into insolvency this week. Aberdeen Fund took a £200 million hit on the failure of UK broadband provider Airband, and Gunnercooke is being probed over work linked to collapsed lender MFS. Meanwhile, Sanjeev Gupta’s family has taken out a £24 million mortgage on a Belgravia mansion, according to a new report. UK venture capital investment rebounds as software and biotech attract funding, according to a report showing surging levels in 2026. AI-related bond issuance may be testing the market — zero-interest convertibles are set for a record year.
Biotech & Defense
China is a threat to the massive biotech bull run, which could challenge the sector. The L3Harris shake-up is an opportunity to bet on missile rearmament, as the defense contractor has had a punishing year but solid fundamentals.
Energy & Commodities
Brent crude climbed 2% on Thursday as hopes for the Strait of Hormuz’s full reopening fade. Oil flows through Hormuz have recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels, per Goldman Sachs — limiting the war’s impact. Hormuz oil flows are creeping higher as Gulf producers ramp up exports. Ukraine struck a major Russian refinery in Yaroslavl, causing gasoline shortages. Panama Canal congestion forces gas tankers into unusual routes, including rare detours around South America.
Asian spot LNG advanced above $23 — with Qatar extending force majeure on European and Asian buyers by another month, as Hormuz uncertainty clouds prospects. U.S. natural gas futures remained higher after weekly storage data showed a smaller-than-expected build.
El Niño will likely reduce Indonesian production palm oil output by up to 3 million tons, according to an industry estimate. One investor sees a windfall in this weather event, and is... betting on El Niño trades. Gold steadied near $4600; gold-mining stocks report their best month in years, outperforming broader indexes.
Offshore & Geopolitics
Dubai and Abu Dhabi are coping with the Iran war, according to a Live Q&A. A walk around Dubai shows no signs of Trump’s “D-Day” for Iran, as reported in the Morning Risk Report. The Middle East wealth hubs have been largely unaffected economically, but the strain is on.
Geopolitics & Regime
A judge ruled that Trump’s blacklisting of Anthropic was illegal, violating the First Amendment. The decision is a developing legal issue. On another legal front, a federal judge barred the Postal Service from imposing restrictions on mail-in voting.
The CIA chief delivered a bleak assessment of Russia’s war in a secretive Moscow visit, pushing for a peace deal. Ratko Mladic He died at. Harald V, Norway’s king, also passed away at.
Other Moves
Wall Street’s love affair with Bessent and Warsh is over, per the NYT; both have lost credibility. The Trump administration is in advanced talks for a stake in Venezuelan oil fields, with 17 fields holding some 90 billion barrels of reserves. Also, Mexico's Sheinbaum proposed barring dual citizen presidents.
Muni / Credits
A judge said Trump’s name should stay off the Kennedy Center for now, per the NYT. LA Fire Zone is set to get $3 million homes funded by muni bonds. The LA Fire recovery plantaps $250 million munis. Muni junk-bonds face pickier buyers as risk premiums shrink. U.S. bank regulators are planning to narrow the enforcement focus to financial risks.
In Case You Missed It
- Gwyneth Paltrow’s Hamptons dinner for Sam Altman was postponed.
- Walmart and Snap’s parent are moving north to Canada, hiring from top U.S. universities.
- Pandemic vaccines are out for fall 2026.
- A private jet firm Vista Global has € y1 billion Europe IPO plans.
Market Wrap
U.S. stock futures drifted lower ahead of the Fed Chair's speech, while Treasury yields edged higher. Gold steadied near $4,600, with the picture for precious metals to Jackson Hole. Warsh will deliver his speech at 10 a.m. ET; market will parse with the yields. That is all for now — for his remarks.
Private Equity
Last updated: August 28, 2026, 8:44 AM ET
Deal Flow
The private equity landscape shifted dramatically in the past 24 hours as Advent International and Stripe abandoned their pursuit of PayPal, ending what Bloomberg reported would have ranked among the largest leveraged buyouts on record at over $50bn. The collapse of that megadeal contrasts with Apollo's significant stake in Atlantic Aviation, a transaction valuing the private aviation infrastructure platform at nearly $10bn, with KKR doubling its money while retaining ownership. In the AI infrastructure race, Anthropic struck a $45bn deal with Nscale to rent compute capacity, while Nvidia is reportedly acquiring Hugging Face for $12.9bn in one of the sector's biggest transactions.
Mid-Market Activity
Gen Nx360 Capital Partners closed its fourth fund at $865m, exceeding its target and marking the largest fundraise in the firm's two-decade history, with a focus on lower-middle-market services buyouts. In the education space, Leeds Equity-backed engage2learn acquired Instructional Coaching Group, the Nebraska-based provider of professional development and research-based coaching frameworks. BV Investment-backed Imagenet acquired Analytica Consulting, a data firm founded in 2015 that works with US government agencies and commercial organizations across healthcare, life sciences and manufacturing. GHK-backed WSB acquired Austin-based engineering firm Foresight, which specializes in geotechnical and structural engineering and project controls.
Consumer & Healthcare
PE-backed Authentic Brands acquired the intellectual property of Drake's lifestyle brand OVO, expanding its portfolio of celebrity-linked consumer brands. In veterinary care, Great Point-backed VetnCare acquired Geary Veterinary Hospital, a nearly five-decade-old practice in Walnut Creek, California, offering wellness, preventive and diagnostic services. On the startup front, fashion company Atorie raised $9.5M to bring consumers luxury goods without the markup, sourcing from the same factories that produce high-end goods.
Fintech & Fraud Prevention
Socure secured a $156M funding round at a $5.2bn valuation, while simultaneously acquiring AI fraud investigation startup Fravity. This deal reflects broader trends in financial services tech, as AI-driven fraud reshapes the sector—including Accel-KKR-backed Basware's agreement to acquire Trustpair, pairing invoice lifecycle management with payment fraud prevention. Meanwhile, FTV Capital has made a growth investment in Kingsview Partners, the wealth management platform serving more than 15,000 households through over 100 independent registered investment advisers.
Markets & Strategy
The secondaries market could reach $1trn in volume within four years, offering a potential solution to private equity's liquidity drought. Meanwhile, investors are questioning whether the operating partner model has become an ornamental exercise, says Lee McCabe of Claymore Partners. JPMorgan's David Sweet dismisses concerns about the high valuations PE firms are paying for fire protection companies, pointing to "battleship-defensibility" of those platforms; KKR's Industrial Physics also scooped up an electrical testing firm.
European Tech
European tech funding saw its second-busiest August on record even as just three deals account for almost half of all venture capital funding in Germany this year. US venture capital firms are increasingly among the most active investors in European deals, with the most active US VCs expanding their presence across the continent.
Sector Investment
Last updated: August 28, 2026, 8:50 AM ET
Private Equity
EQT tapped secondaries to seed its new AI infrastructure fund, with Blackstone Strategic Partners anchoring the vehicle in a blueprint for larger ambitions. The move highlights how pre-owned stakes are increasingly financing next-generation strategies.