While much of Wall Street is standing by to hear what Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has to say today at his first speech to the Jackson Hole economic symposium, history suggests the stock market is likely to react with a whimper rather than a roar. Despite a few exceptions, a Fed chair’s speech at the symposium normally isn’t a big catalyst for stocks — unless it comes before a crucial shift in monetary policy.

Since 2000, the S&P 500 Index has gained just 0.4% on average in the week following the gathering, data compiled by Bloomberg show. And options markets aren’t pricing in any fireworks this time either. The muted historical response indicates that investors typically look beyond the rhetoric for concrete signals on interest rate changes.

Kevin Warsh, a noted economist and former Fed governor, has been a fixture at past Jackson Hole events. His remarks today are expected to focus on inflation trends and the future path of monetary policy, though market participants remain cautious about expecting major surprises.