Markets 24-Hour Briefing

Public Markets

Market Turmoil

US stocks suffered their worst week since April, with the Dow industrials falling 3% as oil prices surged and the labor market showed unexpected weakness. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also posted significant losses as investors grappled with the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict. Goldman Sachs and other financial firms saw shares slide amid persistent credit concerns and a broad market selloff.

Oil Shock and Energy Markets

Oil prices spiked as the Iran conflict disrupted supply routes, with Morgan Stanley warning that an energy shock could push EUR/USD toward the 1.13 floor. Transversal's Wald suggested triple-digit oil prices are possible if the Iran war extends. Sri Lanka's central bank said the country is in a "good position" to absorb price shocks, while Kuwait cut oil output as storage facilities filled up. Thailand's farmers raced for diesel as energy buyers across import-dependent Asia felt the impact of the dramatic crunch.

Federal Reserve Response

The Fed's Hammack warned of potential "tighter" policy as the oil shock lingers, while Cleveland Fed President Goolsbee called the employment report a "tough miss" and expressed hope that rate cuts could start by year-end. Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee said the weak jobs data raises labor market concerns. BlackRock's Rosenberg noted that the weak jobs report undermines the benign outlook, forcing a tradeoff between short-term inflation shocks and labor market deterioration.

Corporate and Deal Activity

Kennedy-Wilson bondholders organized to push back on a tender offer, planning to skip the company's debt exchange offer. Diana Shipping increased its offer to acquire Genco, with Star Bulk Carriers agreeing to purchase 16 of Genco's vessels if the deal closes. SK Innovation laid off 1,958 workers at its Georgia plant as the South Korean battery manufacturer navigates a slowdown in electric vehicle sales. CoreWeave is building a "gigawatt-sized engine for an AI future," according to Oppenheimer.

European Market Impact

UK lenders raised mortgage rates amid warnings over inflation and energy prices, with market sentiment "completely changed" following the Middle East war outbreak. Gilts sold off sharply on fears of inflation from the Iran conflict, dampening hopes for Bank of England rate cuts as oil and gas prices soar. European Central Bank efforts to project calm over war and inflation are being tested as markets price in a hike in interest rates this year.

Technology and AI Developments

Amazon secured a landmark $138 billion AWS deal as OpenAI bets on Trainium chips. Nvidia tied CEO Huang's $4 million bonus to 2027 revenue milestones. Google gave CEO Sundar Pichai a new pay deal worth up to $692 million, with stock options tied to share price and Waymo growth. China pivoted to AI to manage a record-breaking 12.7 million graduate influx amid Middle East turmoil.

Financial Sector Developments

The New York Stock Exchange agreed to pay $9 million to settle SEC allegations that an internal malfunction led to a botched market open and wild price swings. Secondary buyers eyed private-credit assets as redemptions mounted, with a rise in discounted secondary deals expected as wealthy investors seek exits from interval funds and BDCs. Banks and asset manager stocks fell as credit concerns persisted amid the broader market selloff.

Geopolitical Developments

President Trump posted that "Today Iran will be hit very hard!" while later claiming Iran had "surrendered" to neighbors after US-Israel attacks. Iran's President said the country would stop attacks on neighboring countries, though Iran's Guards challenged Trump to have the US Navy escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Russia's Lavrov said "All those suffering from US and Israeli aggression are our strategic partners," while Russia provided Iran with targeting information for potential strikes on US military sites.

Market Strategy Shifts

Bank of America's macro sales desk steered clients to buy HALO (hard assets, low obsolescence) stocks, while Goldman Sachs recommended a geopolitical basket of defense contractors. Deutsche Bank favored exchanges amid market volatility, upgrading Intercontinental Exchange. Baird upgraded Union Pacific on merger synergy outlook with Norfolk Southern. BofA upgraded Ciena on cloud data center spending expectations.

Fixed Income and Credit Markets

First Brands creditors reckoned with dwindling chances of repayment as upcoming asset sales are expected to yield as little as $200 million to pay off a debt pile of more than $12 billion. Market Financial Solutions collapsed, with founder Paresh Raja withdrawing from public view amid due diligence concerns that had Bank of England scrutinizing lenders including Barclays. Barings High Yield and MFS Investment Management discussed liquidity stress in the high-yield bond market as credit concerns mounted.

Emerging Market Impact

India's refiners raised LPG rates for the first time in a year amid the Iran conflict. China's health ministry urged people at potential risk to undergo cancer screenings as part of a broader push to improve prevention and control. Brazil's presidential candidate Roy Barreras warned that Colombia is at risk of being seduced by populists espousing radical and extreme policies as the country faces economic uncertainty amid global market turmoil.

Private Equity

Market Activity & Funding

Robinhood's startup fund stumbled in its NYSE debut, offering retail investors exposure to eight startups including Mercor, Ramp, and Stripe. The first week of March saw a brisk period for large startup funding rounds, with three deals exceeding $500 million in space tech and AI infrastructure sectors. City Detect, which uses AI to help cities stay safe and clean, raised $13 million in Series A funding and operates in at least 17 cities including Dallas and Miami.

Acquisitions & Investments

Wynnchurch-backed ORS Nasco scooped up industrial wholesalers AD Member Supply and Alliance, expanding its portfolio of industrial MRO products. Greenbelt-backed Saber Power snapped up Bounds Construction, strengthening its position as an electrical power system services firm headquartered in Houston. Serent invested in health tech firm Saisystems to accelerate its technology roadmap. Mutares exited its €100 million logistics platform in Time Group to Tawin Holdings, completing the sale of the European time-critical logistics services provider.

Sector Focus

The active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) sector has attracted major players including Astorg, EQT, TA Associates, and New Mountain Capital. American Securities agreed to sell a medical components manufacturing business, highlighting continued dealmaking in the pharma ingredients space. Private equity investor Brydell backed £75 million in bulk home purchases from Vistry Group, acquiring more than 200 homes in a series of transactions.

Fundraising & Strategy

Fund Friday highlighted top fundraising news in private equity, with EQT, Eurazeo, Atomico, Vitruvian Partners, and Northzone shortlisted to manage the European Union's planned €5 billion technology investment fund. Meanwhile, the UK's flagship female founder fund faces criticism for being "chaotic and second-class," raising questions about diversity initiatives in venture capital.

Sector Investment

Fundraising Momentum

MSREI is nearing its GXI target after closing a strong first round, signaling confidence in global real‑estate opportunities.

Infrastructure Capital

Igneo plans to leverage a unified investor‑relations function to accelerate growth, while INPGI has launched two RFPs seeking €70 million for new infrastructure funds, expanding its local and cross‑border exposure.

Asia Real‑Estate Outlook

Asia insulation highlighted overweight appetite for developed markets and an emerging AI‑driven data‑center niche, suggesting continued inflows into the region’s real‑estate sector.