Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron expect memory shortages to ease by late 2028 as demand stabilizes, prompting a reevaluation of factory expansion plans. The South Korean Chosun Biz reports that hyperscaler orders for AI-driven DRAM, such as HBM and DDR, peaked in recent quarters, with industry demand projected to flatten by 2028. This shift has caused firms to reassess massive investments in lithography tools like ASML’s Low-NA EUV scanners, which are critical for advanced memory production.

ASML estimates it will ship 56 Low-NA EUV units in 2027, including 7 units for Samsung and 20 for SK Hynix, reflecting the scale of current memory manufacturing demands. SK Hynix alone plans to install 20 Low-NA EUV systems over two years, targeting HBM and storage solutions. However, with AI-driven demand now predictable based on hyperscaler CapEx plans, manufacturers fear overcapacity if they proceed with additional expansions. Building new fabs and procuring equipment takes years, risking financial losses if demand remains stable.

The slowdown in expansion plans could delay the return of memory to its commodity status, prolonging price volatility. While Samsung and SK Hynix have prioritized HBM production to meet AI needs, their hesitation to exceed initial fab capacity targets highlights the industry’s tightrope walk between scaling and sustainability. Analysts warn that delays in supply chain adjustments may keep memory prices elevated until 2029, impacting tech sectors reliant on DRAM.

The key takeaway: Memory manufacturers are balancing immediate AI demand with long-term risks of overinvestment. Without clear signals of sustained growth beyond 2028, firms like Samsung and SK Hynix are opting for cautious growth, prioritizing stability over aggressive expansion in a market still recovering from shortages.