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Stanley Cup Playoffs Defy Predictions with Upsets and Low Scoring

ESPN NHL •
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The 2026 postseason has turned the usual script on its head. Favorites Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes entered the conference finals as near‑certainties, yet both fell to early upsets—Vegas Golden Knights seized a 4-2 win in Denver, and Montreal dumped Carolina after a four‑goal first period. The odds of both shocks occurring were under 10%, underscoring the chaos that defines a Cup run.

Scoring has slipped back to normal levels. After a regular‑season average of 3.13 goals per game, the playoffs sit at 2.96, a 5.4% drop that mirrors the typical postseason dip. Even though overall offense waned, the Golden Knights now post 3.69 goals per game, outpacing their regular‑season rate. Meanwhile, Mitch Marner leads the scoring chart with 21 points, highlighting how the postseason reshuffles the leaderboard.

Goalies have been the wild card. Save percentages rose from .896 in the regular season to .904 in the playoffs, the second‑largest improvement since 2015, helping suppress scoring. Yet individual performances vary wildly: Andersen struggled for Carolina, while Carter Hart shines for Vegas. The data confirms that goaltending, not star power, drives outcomes in this unpredictable stretch.