ESPN's Football Power Index released its 2026 preseason projections, ranking the Los Angeles Rams as Super Bowl favorites despite the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots reaching last season's championship game. The Rams sit fourth in overall FPI rankings with a 14.9% chance to win Super Bowl LXI, while Seattle drops to seventh place at 7.0% and New England ranks 14th. This marks the first time since FPI's inception that a Super Bowl participant falls outside the top 10 in preseason rankings.

The Patriots' low ranking reflects their relatively easy path to the Super Bowl, facing weak opponents and benefiting from fortunate scheduling. Though they acquired A.J. Brown to strengthen their passing offense, FPI projects just 6.7% odds of reaching the title game again. Meanwhile, Buffalo leads the AFC with 67.6% division odds, positioning them as the conference's most likely Super Bowl representative.

NFC West dominance dominates the early outlook, with three teams cracking the top five: Los Angeles, Seattle, and San Francisco. The Rams gained significant momentum by trading for edge rusher Myles Garrett, bolstering a defense that already added cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. Detroit benefits from the league's softest schedule, making them narrow favorites to capture the NFC North crown.

Most likely Super Bowl matchups feature Buffalo versus Los Angeles at 4.8%, followed by Baltimore-Los Angeles at 4.7%. These projections suggest the Rams' offensive stability and defensive upgrades position them better for sustained success than Seattle's defense-dependent formula, which historically shows more year-to-year variance.