The 2026 Rams are the closest thing we’ve seen to a preseason superteam in years. Sean McVay’s staff, already a popular pick to win Super Bowl LXI, made aggressive moves—trading for Trent McDuffie, signing Jaylen Watson, drafting Ty Simpson, and, most notably, swapping Jared Verse and three picks for Myles Garrett.

These moves have vaulted the Rams to a Draft Kings implied odds of 12.5% to win the Super Bowl, the highest since 1990. In comparison, the next‑best teams are the Bills and Ravens at roughly 7%. The market’s confidence is reflected in the +550 line, the shortest in the league.

Barnwell reviews 15 historical preseason favorites from 1990 to 2025—teams like the 2017 Patriots and 1996 49ers—to assess how often big favorites translate into titles. Past seasons show a mixed record: the 2017 Patriots, despite a 14‑2 record, lost Super Bowl LII, while the 2007 Patriots fell to the Giants in XLII.

The question remains: will the 2026 Rams defy the trend and clinch the Lombardi Trophy? Barnwell’s data‑driven look offers a clearer picture of the odds, but the NFL’s unpredictability means any team could still surprise.