Европейский центральный банк поднял ставки до 2,5 процента, с предупреждением Кристины Лагард, что инфляция будет "дольше, чем ожидалось". С другой стороны, цены на нефть выросли до 109 долларов за баррель, а доходность 10-летних облигаций США достигла 4,95 процента, pushing the futures market to a 70 per cent chance that the Fed hikes next week. Goldman Sachs raised year-end forecasts by $5 to $85 for Brent and $80 for WTI, citing "significant upside risk".

Jason Bordoff from Columbia University says buffers such as inventory drawdowns and low Chinese imports are not perpetual, while Hamad Hussain at Capital Economics estimates ship-to-ship transfers let as much as 12mn barrels a day slip through the Strait of Hormuz. Refinery capacity is tight, with crack spreads at fresh highs, driving petrol and diesel prices up ahead of the US midterm elections.

Fed chair Kevin Warsh argued at Jackson Hole that wage growth is not a reliable inflation indicator, a view supported by historical data. Stocks have gone sideways for four months as markets weigh all the excitement.