Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Energy & Commodities
Oil surged past $90 a barrel for the first time in the Iran war, tightening global markets as Asian refiners aggressively bought crude. The conflict disrupted supply chains, prompting US gasoline prices to jump to their highest level under Trump. While the IEA sees no need yet to tap strategic reserves, Kuwait cut output as storage filled. US aluminum buyers are scrambling for Asian alternatives after Middle East supplies were cut. Russian oil is gaining market share as Indian refiners snap up Moscow barrels.
Market Reactions
US stocks dropped sharply, with the S&P 500 ending its worst week since April 2025. Treasuries slid for their biggest weekly loss in nearly a year as war-driven inflation fears overshadowed a weak jobs report. Credit traders are unwinding massive long positions and shifting to hedges. Colombia’s local debt rallied sharply as higher oil prices boosted the commodity exporter. US stocks flipped their narrative, outpacing global peers as the conflict persisted.
Federal Reserve & Policy
Fed Governor Waller said the Iran war is unlikely to cause sustained inflation, viewing the oil price shock as temporary. Chicago’s Goolsbee hinted rate cuts could start by year-end despite the jobs miss. BlackRock’s Rieder maintained the economy is fine, while BlackRock’s Rosenberg warned the weak report undermines a benign outlook. National Economic Director Hassett called the February jobs data an outlier impacted by weather, and said there are no plans to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Corporate & Sector Impacts
Barclays analysts argued an AI-related selloff in life science tool stocks is overdone. Servier agreed to buy Day One for $2.5 billion, a 68% premium, expanding its oncology portfolio. Direct lenders have taken control of nearly 150 European companies as debt burdens became unsustainable. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suspended key Middle East shipping routes, disrupting trade. Western Alliance sued Jefferies over $126.4 million in unpaid forbearance payments linked to First Brands. Blue Owl Capital disclosed a £36 million exposure to the collapsed UK lender Century Capital.
Regional & Emerging Markets
Gulf bonds remained resilient despite regional conflict, with credit markets showing safe-haven status. Qatar loaded its first LNG cargo after halting production due to the war. Japan and Canada pledged deeper energy ties during Prime Minister Carney’s Tokyo visit. China’s central bank vowed to insulate markets from war-driven volatility and support yuan stability. Euro-zone GDP was revised lower, with trade weighing on growth, while bonds slid as a ECB hike moved from fringe to consensus.