Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Market Turmoil and Economic Impact
US stocks plunged over 900 points Friday as oil prices surged past $90 and the economy unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs in February. The S&P 500 futures dropped 0.6% early Friday amid mounting concerns that the Middle East war is fueling inflation. BlackRock's Jeffrey Rosenberg warned that the weak jobs report undermines the benign economic outlook, while Rick Rieder said the economy and employment are in "quite different conditions" following the February payrolls data.
Bond investors boosted bets on Fed rate cuts this year after the disappointing employment report, even as rising energy prices threaten to fuel inflation. Credit investors are unwinding long positions worth tens of billions of dollars and jumping into hedging trades amid the volatility.
Energy Crisis and Supply Chain Disruptions
US aluminum buyers are rushing to secure alternative supplies from Asia as the war on Iran disrupts major foreign sources, threatening to hike metal costs used in everything from beverage cans to airplane parts. Kuwait cut oil output as storage fills up, while Qatar appears to have loaded its first LNG cargo since declaring force majeure.
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd temporarily halted key shipping lanes amid the Iran conflict, with container shipping groups halting navigation into and out of the region. US gasoline pump prices jumped to their highest level under Trump as the Middle East conflict disrupts energy supplies. India faces sweltering summer nights as the Iran war crimps natural gas supply, potentially curtailing electricity generation needed for cooling.
Corporate Developments and Market Winners
CoreWeave is building a "gigawatt-sized engine for an AI future," according to Oppenheimer, as AI infrastructure demand surges. BofA upgraded Ciena on cloud data center spending, while Marvell was raised to Buy as outlook signals growth re-acceleration.
Servier will pay $21.50 per share in cash to acquire Day One, representing a 68% premium to the closing price. BMO upgraded Okta on demand for AI identity security, while Barclays says Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' profits from Dupixent are underpriced.
Private Markets and Investment Shifts
BlackRock limited redemptions at its private credit fund as outflows swelled after withdrawal requests at the flagship HPS Corporate Lending Fund surged to 9.3% of net asset value. Blue Owl has £36 million exposure to Century Capital Partners, a UK lender that filed for administration last month.
Direct lenders have taken control of nearly 150 companies in Europe after they could no longer afford to pay their debts, according to Goldman Sachs. London-based reinsurers are canceling war risk coverage and demanding 200% more to reinstate policies after a US submarine sank an Iranian vessel.
Policy and Regulatory Developments
Western Alliance sued Jefferies after being informed that $126.4 million in forbearance payments would not be made. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Iran war is "unlikely to cause sustained inflation," while Waller discussed potential inflationary impacts, US payrolls, and ongoing risks from tariffs.
Swiss authorities want to continue trade talks with the US even after the Supreme Court scrapped the legal base for most of Trump's sweeping tariffs. Indonesia says Pakistan and UAE back Prabowo's bid for Iran mediation, while Ecuador eyes a $4 billion bond sale return.
Sector-Specific News
UK house prices reached new highs in February as the market shows resilience. Burlington Stores reported higher fiscal fourth-quarter profit as inflation concerns drove consumers to off-price retailers.
Germany's solar boom is easing power costs as gas prices jump, with unusually strong solar power output in March helping to cap electricity prices even as Middle East conflict drives up global energy costs. Hargreaves Lansdown postponed fee rises for some customers following a number of wealthier clients switching to rival investment platforms.
Global Market Reactions
European shares headed for their steepest weekly decline since April as the Iran war shows no sign of nearing resolution. US stocks have flipped the script for international investors since war erupted in the Mideast, handily outpacing the rest of the world after trailing global peers badly last month.
The International Energy Agency said it sees no need yet to release emergency oil stockpiles amid the Middle East crisis, as global oil supplies are plentiful. European private credit borrowers don't go bankrupt or at least extremely rarely, according to industry data.