Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Market Volatility
US oil prices topped $80 a barrel for the first time since January 2025 as the deepening Middle East conflict disrupted crude flows to key buyers. The dollar is heading for its best week since 2022 after the US strike on Iran triggered a flight to safety, with traders now turning to Friday's jobs report to see whether the rally will continue. Mortgage rates have climbed above 6% as Iran war fears spark inflation concerns, ending a brief window of sub-6% rates that had opened for the first time in over three years.
Energy & Commodities
Oil surged to $80 a barrel as the conflict in the Middle East disrupted crude flows to key buyers, with top importer China seeking to conserve fuel. Aluminium supply is facing a crunch and shutdowns across the Middle East as the region produces 10% of global output, threatening "repricing across base metals" if outages continue. Adani Total Gas tripled prices for large industrial users as war disrupts supply, while Venezuelan oil cargoes are surging at an opportune time as American fuel makers gobble up the country's heavy crude.
Airlines & Travel
Airline troubles are mounting as flight cancellations top 23,000, with the financial and logistical impact of the Iran war compounding daily for the global aviation industry. Heathrow Airport is facing mounting cancellations and parked planes from the conflict, with the Mideast war posing an "operational challenge" as the hub deals with hundreds of flight cancellations. Europe-to-Asia air travel has been squeezed into a narrow corridor after a drone attack on Azerbaijan puts further pressure on western airlines.
Technology & AI
Nvidia sank on reports of global AI chip export rules, while Oracle plans thousands of job cuts in the face of an AI cash crunch. OpenAI's Symphony may shift AI beyond chat, according to UBS, as the sector faces a PR problem with slow responses to public concerns over the technology. Rapid Anthropic growth is bullish for this Magnificent 7 stock as the AI arms race intensifies.
Banking & Finance
Bond traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will forgo any rate cuts this year as the Middle East conflict boosts oil prices and threatens to push up inflation. BlackRock slashed private loan value from 100 to zero, marking the second sudden wipeout to recently hit its private credit portfolio. JPMorgan's 3,500-person leveraged finance event was jolted by a war reality check as unease grows about the roughly $3 trillion leveraged finance market.
Corporate News
Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel started the conglomerate's first share buyback of the post-Buffett era as cash and short-term Treasury holdings hit a record $373 billion. Rolls-Royce boss is in line for an increased £18 million annual pay package while already sitting on a paper gain of more than £100 million from shares received when joining the engine maker. Victoria's Secret shares fell despite a Q4 earnings beat and upbeat outlook due to concerns over expenses and tariffs.
Global Trade & Policy
Trump's new tariffs face a legal challenge from states planning to file a lawsuit over his order placing a 10% tax on goods entering the US. The US won't allow India to become a rival like China, with Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau saying the US won't give India the same economic advantages it gave China. Germany is working with JPMorgan on a potential KNDS stake deal as Berlin moves ahead with plans to support the European defense company.
Emerging Markets
Investors haven't lost faith in emerging markets even as the Middle East conflict roils riskier assets, according to Bank of America strategists. Zimbabwe is taking steps to clear the $23 billion it owes multilateral institutions as talks with lenders progress well. India has held talks with the US to seek clarity on a proposed mechanism to provide insurance for oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Real Estate & Infrastructure
EQT bought East Coast warehouses from Mapletree for $575 million, while Galvanize hit $1 billion for a commercial real estate strategy designed to make buildings more resilient to soaring energy costs. Six Flags agreed to sell seven of its regional amusement parks to EPR Properties for total cash consideration of $331 million. Saba Capital offered a steep discount for Starwood real estate shares, seeking a stake in the fund that sharply limited investor redemptions in 2024.