Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: August 11, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Equities

US stocks ended a volatile session mixed, with the S&P 500 dipping from its recent record territory as oil prices resumed their advance. Major indexes had turned lower earlier in the day, with the benchmark pulling back after last week’s fresh all-time high. Traders refrained from making big bets ahead of a key inflation report. A recent rally has been sustained by skepticism among investors, which some analysts view as a potential buying opportunity.

European indexes were broadly higher, boosted by energy stocks on the back of rising oil prices. European markets have charged ahead this year, defying forecasts that the Iran war would tip the region into stagflation. The Stoxx 600 is up 12% year-to-date as earnings and economic growth prove resilient. Defense stocks are expected to deliver continued strong growth as the region’s rearmament cycle enters a new stage. Volatility tumbled as markets shrugged off Middle East risks, with the Vix falling to prewar levels even as oil rose.

US stock futures edged higher before the bell as oil erased an earlier advance, with traders awaiting inflation data for guidance on Fed policy. Small business confidence in the US rose last month, with the NFIB optimism index hitting its highest level since August 2025. Shareholder proposals are on the wane, with filings dropping sharply in 2024. Trend-chasing funds have placed record short bets against global bonds, raising the stakes for US inflation reports this week.

In sector-specific moves, Intel investors are banking on a comeback driven by AI mania. CoreWeave shares have been on a roll after a monthslong slump, with its earnings report seen as key to halting a selloff. Healthcare stocks are increasingly trading opposite to tech, making healthcare investing an AI short in disguise. AI mania is also stealing crypto’s thunder, with investors dropping bitcoin for AI stocks. Cloudflare announced plans for a $2.175 billion convertible notes offering. Tractor Supply stock climbed to record highs after strong earnings.

In emerging markets, Turkish funds urged authorities to crack down on unusual trading activity threatening MSCI status. India’s retail traders lost $9.6 billion in equity derivatives in the year ended March. Wipro’s exit from India’s Nifty 50 reflects waning clout of Indian IT giants. Malaysia’s Prime Minister lost a third lawmaker from his party amid an exodus. Korea’s small caps surged 30% on rotation from leveraged ETFs.

Fixed Income

Treasury yields rose as Middle East tensions and inflation fears increased, with bond markets souring to rising oil prices as hopes for a Hormuz deal faded. US Treasuries have seen a shift in the buyer base toward value-oriented funds and households, helping propel 30-year yields to multi-decade peaks. Eurozone government bond yields rose slightly amid Hormuz uncertainty. Gilts dropped as the oil rally revived inflation worries.

Intercontinental Exchange kicked off a bond sale for its $6 billion Market Axess takeover. Blue Owl Capital is selling $750 million of high-grade debt, up from initial discussions of $500 million. Duke Energy plans to raise about $1.75 billion by selling equity units. IBM returned to the Canadian bond market with a C$2.75 billion sale. Gainwell Technologies started the bond part of a $5.8 billion debt overhaul, the US software sector’s biggest junk-debt financing of 2026.

TIPS bonds offer a rare buying opportunity with 3% real yields. Bond buyers have become picky, keeping yields at multiyear peaks, according to Barclays. Private credit firms are clamping down on loan sweeteners amid fears of “shadow defaults,” as borrowers have delayed interest payments on billions of dollars of loans. Data center bonds were exempted from key securitization rules by the SEC, potentially opening the door for more debt sales.

Currencies & Commodities

The dollar edged higher amid concerns about Strait of Hormuz negotiations. The yen slid toward 160 per dollar, raising intervention concerns as the effect of US-Japan joint action faded. Currency traders cited a lack of unified voice among central banks. Dollar strength continued against the yen despite official efforts. Taiwan dollar options surged as traders bet on a rebound. The yuan may resume its march against the dollar next month, analysts say. Emerging market currencies fell as Iran hopes faded and oil neared $90.

Oil prices rose amid growing doubts that the Strait of Hormuz can reopen soon. Brent crude climbed on the stalemate, with hopes dashed for a breakthrough on shipping through the critical waterway. The US sees Iran war oil supply disruptions lasting through 2027, at about 600,000 barrels per day. Iran’s oil terminals have appeared largely idle as the US continues its blockade. Trump’s low-key pivot leaves Hormuz oil in limbo, prolonging uncertainty. A dozen ships continued to shuttle oil through Hormuz despite attacks. The real oil squeeze is happening in refineries, with millions of barrels of refined products taken off global markets. Russia’s crude oil exports tumbled to their lowest since May as refiners boosted runs.

Gold was broadly flat ahead of key US inflation data, eyeing the $4,500 target. The yellow metal pulled back from a two-month peak ahead of the inflation report. Gold gained in early Asian trade, supported by a weaker jobs report. A rally is being driven by ETF inflows and central bank buying. Aluminum extended gains to a seven-week high after a key alumina producer slashed production. Copper shipments from Indonesia suffered delays due to a smelter outage. Chile cut its copper production forecast again as mine woes persist.

US natural gas futures were steady, holding onto previous gains from a hotter weather outlook. Futures rebounded as near-term weather forecasts added heat. US natural gas surged as hotter outlooks triggered short-covering. European gas prices were pushed close to Iran war highs by heatwaves.

Macro & Policy

The SEC is considering direct funding for a costly market-tracking database after a lawsuit. The Fed’s Hammack said a number of rate hikes may be needed to bring down inflation. Uncertainty over the Fed’s rate path could weigh on the dollar. Colombia’s inflation unexpectedly slowed, easing pressure on rates. US household delinquencies improved in the second quarter, according to the NY Fed. However, credit-card delinquencies remain high due to stale, charged-off loans. Americans are tapping record home equity to pay credit card debt. The US missile stockpile is dangerously low after the Iran war.

Deals & Activism

Target hired its first chief AI officer in retail’s latest tech push. Uber exited its Serve Robotics stake as the delivery alliance unraveled. Curaleaf plans a hostile $272 million bid for rival Aurora Cannabis. Anson Funds is pushing Lionsgate for a sale. Ari Emanuel bought theatre group ATG for £4.5bn, representing a bet on live events. Nasdaq will acquire Leve L Markets, an off-exchange equity execution venue. TPG agreed to buy South Korea’s Lotte Rental for $925 million.

Barrick tapped Bock to lead its ex-North America unit ahead of an IPO. DayOne Data Centers confidentially filed for a $5 billion IPO. Shein pitched its IPO to investors at sub-$30bn valuation. Adani secured an $800 million data center loan. 777 Partners filed for bankruptcy after creditors’ liquidation push. Boeing will fold its flying-taxi venture into Archer Aviation. It is also selling three autonomous flight subsidiaries. The US opened an in-depth antitrust review of the Kone-TK Elevator deal.