Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: August 9, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Equities

A blockbuster earnings season has extended the stock market's record run, with stock funds up 10.6% so far in 2026 despite a turbulent month. U.S. major indexes gained on weaker-than-expected July jobs data, which prompted traders to scale back rate-hike expectations, as markets rallied on the surprise job losses. Europe's stock market is firing on all cylinders, with the Stoxx 600 drawing money managers who see the rally as durable; companies in the index are on track for a 22% increase in second-quarter profits, fueling investor returns. The rally extended to a fourth straight week as European stocks hit fresh records on strong earnings and M&A chatter. In Asia, South Korea's volatility spike ebbed after a historic selloff flushed out leveraged positions, while India's stock auction system for setting closing prices left trading strategies "buried alive" in a shaky first week. China is betting on AI stocks as it races the U.S. for tech dominance, a break from reliance on subsidies. Greg Abel finally put Berkshire's cash pile to work, ploughing a net $20bn into stocks. The leveraged ETF boom is creating new ways to profit from volatility, with leveraged ETFs amping up intraday momentum plays. Bank of America's sentiment gauge hit its most extreme bullish level since 2021, with strategists advising to reduce risk.

Fixed Income

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is sending fresh signals to calm bond markets, with Bessent's moves seen as a sign of bond-market angst. Treasury yields fell after the July jobs report showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs, as Treasury yields declined. Wellington Asset Management reduced exposure to U.S. Treasuries, shifting into German bonds after the Fed's meeting fueled doubts about its inflation-fighting credibility. The free money era for AI bond buildouts is over, with hyperscaler debt getting pricier. Japan's four largest life insurers reported combined unrealized losses on domestic bonds of $96 billion, as Japan's insurers saw losses increase 7% in the quarter. The curious case of Japanese government bond yields, where the 15-year JGB yield is not as high as some think. Puerto Rico's capital San Juan saw blowout demand for its muni-bond sale, a rare opportunity for exposure to the island.

Commodities

Oil prices climbed as the stalemate over Iran's Strait of Hormuz persisted, with oil futures slipping 1.3% in early Asian trade before extending gains. Brent crude settled up 1.3% to $83.55 for a 5% weekly loss, while WTI rose 1.2% to $78.18. Iran's oil exports have stalled as the Kharg Island terminal idles under a U.S. blockade. Copper is headed for a record close on tighter global supply, with copper surging as the U.S. and China compete for metal. The copper market crunch is brewing as a surge in shipments to the U.S. and rising orders in China set the stage for a rally. A key Chinese steel price hit a near-decade low on a construction slump as the property downturn saps demand. Chinese solar stocks were whipsawed by domestic policies and US tariffs on polysilicon. The energy industry's new mantra is “Refine, Baby, Refine” as America's fuel-makers max out amid a global supply crunch. Australia's wheat crop is rebounding at a crucial time for global supply, helping buffer a grim outlook. Ukraine grain exports could slump by more than half after Russian strikes on Odesa ports. A diesel squeeze is setting the stage for a winter fuel crunch as demand rises ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Currencies

The Australian dollar is poised to climb back toward a 35-year high against the yen, with the Aussie-yen set to approach a three-decade high as the RBA's hawkish stance bolsters the currency. The yen surged 1% against the dollar after U.S. jobs data, with yen intervention eyed. Currency interventions have a mixed record, as you can't fight macro with FX interventions. The U.S. support for Japan's yen intervention is unlikely to damage the dollar's status, according to Goldman Sachs. Emerging Asia is finding ways to support currencies without dipping into reserves, as currency defense gets a makeover. The yen intervention illustrates the dangers of monetary experiments, with Tokyo and Washington creating long-term danger. The US bares its financial weak spot as the yen intervention points to the squishy underbelly of American weakness.

Macro & Policy

The July jobs report posed a new test for Fed Chair Warsh, with investors watching for clues on the next Fed move. The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a surprise that sent Treasury yields falling and fueled rate-cut expectations. The Senate confirmed Christopher Phelan as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, a former Minneapolis Fed adviser. China's inflation cooled more than expected in July, with consumer and factory-gate prices decelerating, reflecting tepid domestic demand. The Iran war oil shock is starting to ease as China's factory-gate inflation eased for the first time since the war broke out. The Philippine economy grew at its slowest pace since 2009 excluding Covid, as the Middle East conflict stokes inflation and drags down spending. UK Treasury officials fear the prime minister's talk of fiscal flexibility could backfire by destabilizing financial markets. A U.S. judge blocked the Defense Department from enforcing its Chinese military company designation on WuXi AppTec, granting temporary relief. The SEC dropped an insider-trading lawsuit against a former healthcare executive who was pardoned by President Trump. The CFTC warned prediction markets to avoid using American-style gambling odds as the regulator fends off legal challenges. A landmark crypto bill has stalled in the Senate despite a $225 million spending push by lobbyists. Hungary's central bank renewed support for joining the euro area, saying it would benefit the economy.

Sectors & Themes

Asian carmakers are cashing in as high petrol prices lift U.S. demand for hybrids, with sales of models from Honda, Hyundai and Toyota jumping by a fifth in July. America's electric honeymoon is over, as EV owners face higher prices and look to hybrids and gas cars. U.S. consumer brands are seeing substantial increases in overseas revenue, with chicken, soap and snacks selling better overseas. Apollo's upmarket plans for easy Jet include premium seats and more charges, as the airline prepares to offer extra services and feed long-haul carriers. Wendy's withdrew its outlook and slashed its quarterly dividend as its turnaround struggles to pick up steam. Under Armour lowered its revenue outlook on soft demand, with traffic trends weakening in North America and Asia-Pacific. Allianz posted lower net profit but a record operating profit as it turns to dealmaking to reshape its portfolio. India's top bank, State Bank of India, reported better-than-expected profit, with shares rising on strong credit growth. Private-credit funds are increasingly squeezed by bank refinancings as highly-indebted companies ditch private credit loans for cheaper capital. The UK's sluggish IPO market is hurting private equity and venture capital, with fewer exit routes available. Private-equity firms are eager for exits and pouncing on the hot IPO market, as more firms take companies public. Japan's pension whale GPIF posted a record $152 billion gain on the stock rally in the quarter. China's new export engine is shifting to high-value items that underpin global manufacturing, no longer just cheap consumer goods. The UK manages a record share of assets on behalf of overseas clients, helping dispel worries over London's status as a financial centre.