Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: August 7, 2026, 1:42 PM ET

Equities

US stock futures surged Friday after July jobs data showed the economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs, prompting traders to scale back rate-hike bets. The S&P 500 rose 1.8% to hit a record high, pushing past its previous peak from the start of June. Big Tech stocks stormed back as AI spending fears faded, with a record $3.5 trillion increase in the Nasdaq 100's market capitalization in just four days. Wall Street bulls flocked to S&P 500 calls as the rally broadened beyond tech, though BofA's sentiment gauge hit its most extreme bullish level since 2021, suggesting it's time to reduce exposure to risky assets. The Dow notched its 24th record of the year on strong earnings, while the Nasdaq slipped in a jittery session. European stocks extended record highs with the Stoxx 600 gaining for a fourth straight day, led by consumer-facing stocks and healthcare. The Dow broke its winning streak Wednesday, falling 460 points as oil prices gained amid Hormuz talks.

Fixed Income & Fed Policy

Treasury yields fell sharply after the weak July payrolls report, with the 10-year yield dropping as traders trimmed expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Bond traders were bracing for the labor market data to tip the scale on whether the Federal Reserve raises rates at its next meeting. The bond market is signaling rising risks that investors should heed, with higher hurdles for AI data centers and the stock market. Wellington Funds pivoted from Treasuries into German bonds after last week's Fed meeting fueled doubts about its inflation-fighting credentials. Barclays and HSBC say concern the Fed is dragging its feet on inflation is giving investors another reason to buy inflation-protected bonds. The US Treasury signaled steady debt sales into 2027, offering a "subtle" change even as federal borrowing needs climb. Treasury options splurge risks igniting bigger market turbulence, with traders spending millions to guard against sharp declines in long-dated debt. The Fed's Fima repo facility went unused for an eighth straight week, suggesting Japan didn't use the tool in its latest yen-support effort.

Currencies

The dollar fell to a seven-week low against a basket of currencies after the unexpected decline in July nonfarm payrolls. The yen surged 1% against the dollar after the jobs data, with traders watching for intervention clues. Japan confirmed three-day yen intervention during the spring Golden Week holiday, going beyond its recent twin-punch playbook. The US decision to sell euros to support Japan's currency without warning European policymakers is adding to geopolitical risks, BlackRock says. Bank of America sees the yen gaining 6% against the dollar by year-end following coordinated currency intervention. Goldman Sachs is skeptical that US support for Japan's yen efforts will damage the dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency. Dollar hedging costs jumped as Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh ditches rate guidance, leaving Wall Street guessing. The carry trade is powering on as investors sidestep the yen's gains, with emerging-market carry bets showing resilience.

Energy & Commodities

Oil futures fell to a three-week low after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US could be close to an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's oil exports have stalled with Kharg Island idling under the US blockade, as naval interdiction halts tankers carrying Tehran's crude. US crude inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended July 31, defying expectations for a 1.2 million barrel decline. Copper headed for a record close on signs of tighter short-term supply, with Comex copper climbing to an all-time high on tariff speculation. The copper market is tightening fast as the US and China compete for metal, with a surge in shipments to the US and rising Chinese orders setting the stage for a rally to all-time highs. Gold jumped the most since February as prospects for a Hormuz deal reduced expectations for Fed rate hikes, while Comex gold settled 0.09% lower at $4,242.00, snapping a two-day winning streak. China's central bank extended its gold buying streak to 21 months, with bullion prices building support above $4,000 an ounce. Global food prices rose to a three-year high in July as weather and wars lifted costs, with the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz compounding expectations of a strong El Niño. US natural gas futures picked up ground following losses the previous session on the expanding inventory surplus.

Corporate Earnings

WPP shares soared the most on record after the advertising agency's turnaround efforts gained momentum, with revenue less pass-through costs falling less sharply. SpaceX reported soaring AI spending in its first earnings after the IPO, with capital expenditures jumping nearly seven times from a year ago and revenue rising 92%. Honda raised its profit outlook 30% as a weak yen and US demand for hybrids lifted quarterly results to a record. Glencore reported a steep jump in profits after a surge in copper prices and one of its trading unit's best-ever periods. Siemens Energy profit tripled as orders hit record highs on US data-center demand. Eli Lilly reported higher revenue fueled by continued surging demand for its GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, while Novo Nordisk raised its profit outlook as weight-loss drug demand soars. Disney's third-quarter revenue increased 7% to $25.2 billion, driven by theme parks and "Toy Story." Take-Two logged higher sales in its fiscal first quarter, but losses widened due to discontinued development of a title. DraftKings reported second-quarter sales and earnings that missed expectations as prediction-market players challenge the sportsbetting industry. AMD shares fell 8% despite a revenue beat, as Elon Musk committed to Nvidia chips for SpaceX. Under Armour lowered its revenue outlook on soft demand, with traffic trends weakening especially in North America and Asia-Pacific. Wendy's withdrew its outlook and slashed its quarterly dividend as its turnaround struggles to pick up steam.

M&A and Deals

Whatnot, the live-shopping platform, nearly doubled its valuation to $20 billion in less than a year. Dream Finders Homes agreed to buy Beazer Homes for about $916 million following several months of talks. Nielsen Holdings agreed to buy DoubleVerify in a deal with an enterprise value of about $2.15 billion. JBS secured a $2.5 billion investment from Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund Danantara to form a joint venture focused on the protein market in Southeast Asia. Kirin Holdings agreed to acquire Jamieson Wellness for $1.4 billion, sending its shares up 2.4% to near record levels. Disney agreed to sell its stake in A+E Global Media to Hearst for about $1.2 billion. Allianz agreed to buy UOB's asset management unit, marking its second major deal in recent days as CEO Oliver Baete pursues Asia growth. Gainwell Technologies kicked off a $5.8 billion debt overhaul, the US software sector's biggest refinancing of 2026. Apollo invested $1.02 billion in a joint venture with Starwood Real Estate Income Trust, the commercial property vehicle known as SREIT.