Last updated: August 7, 2026, 2:43 PM ET

Public Markets Briefing

Equities

U.S. stocks rose after the July jobs report came in much cooler than expected, with the U.S. economy losing 23,000 jobs last month. Stocks jumped as the data was seen easing rate-hike pressures on the Federal Reserve. The Dow rose after jobs data missed forecasts, prompting traders to scale back rate-hike expectations. The S&P 500 hit a record high, rising 1.8 percent and capping a turnaround from a recent tech selloff. Strong earnings powered the Dow to another record, its 24th high of the year. A tech melt-up drove a $3.5 trillion increase in the Nasdaq 100's market capitalization in just four days. European stocks rose for a fourth consecutive week as strong earnings lifted regional benchmarks to fresh records. The Dow fell 460 points on Thursday, breaking its winning streak as AI anxiety weighed on markets. U.S. stocks finished mixed as optimism about reopening the Strait of Hormuz was offset by tech volatility. Stocks surged after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 was poised for another record as AI spending momentum held. Big Tech stocks stormed back as AI fears faded and euphoria resumed. European indexes extended record highs at the open, with the Stoxx 600 up and industrial and retail stocks gaining.

Fixed Income & Rates

Treasury yields fell after a much weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report. US Treasuries rallied as soft jobs data trimmed Fed rate-hike bets. Treasury yields also fell on hopes for an Iran deal as oil prices dropped. The bond market is signaling rising risks that investors should heed, with implications for home buyers and AI data centers. Bond traders were bracing for labor market data that could cool expectations the Fed raises rates in September. The US Treasury retained its previous guidance for future debt issuance, signaling no change in auction sizes well into 2027. The US Treasury also sparked debate about auction cutbacks to temper yields. Treasury yields ticked down after weaker-than-expected private payrolls data ahead of the BLS employment report. Treasury yields rose ahead of Friday's payrolls report as job-cut plans remained calm in July. Wellington Asset Management has reduced its exposure to US Treasuries, shifting into German bonds after the Fed meeting fueled doubts about its inflation-fighting credentials. Barclays and HSBC say concern the Fed is dragging its feet on inflation is giving investors another reason to buy inflation-protected bonds. Japan's 30-year bond sale drew firm demand, delivering calm to a market buffeted by currency turmoil.

Currencies

The dollar fell to its lowest level since May after soft US labor data reduced expectations that the Fed will raise rates. The dollar hit a seven-week low against a basket of currencies after the unexpected decline in July nonfarm payrolls. The yen surged 1% against the dollar after US jobs data, with traders watching for intervention clues. The yen jumped on the unexpectedly soft US payrolls report, fueling speculation about further intervention. Bank of America sees the yen strengthening about 6% against the dollar by year-end following coordinated currency intervention. The WSJ Dollar Index fell 0.16% to 96.01, down six of the past seven trading days. The dollar finished its best day in two weeks as oil prices advanced amid fading optimism over easing Middle East tensions. The South Korean won rose to the strongest level in almost 10 months as exporters converted dollar earnings into the local currency. US support for Japan's yen is unlikely to damage the dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency, according to Goldman Sachs.

Commodities & Energy

Oil futures moved higher as the market awaited news on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures fell to a three-week low after Bessent said the US could be close to an agreement with Iran. Copper prices rose for a third consecutive session, ending at fresh records. Copper headed for a record close in London on signs of tighter short-term supply. Gold was on track for its biggest gain in more than six months as dip-buyers supported prices. Gold jumped the most since February on Hormuz reopening prospects and a technical breakout. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended July 31, against expectations of a 1.2 million barrel decline. Comex gold settled 0.09% lower at $4,242.00, with gold and silver prices snapping winning streaks. U.S. natural gas futures picked up ground following losses on the expanding inventory surplus. Oil gained as tensions in the Middle East flared while traders monitored progress toward a deal between Iran and Oman to partially restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's oil exports have stalled and Kharg Island idles under the US blockade, with naval interdiction halting tankers carrying Tehran's crude. Saudi crude shipments to the US dropped to zero in July, the first time that's happened for an entire month since 1985.

Jobs & the Fed

The labor market shifted into reverse as employers balked at hiring, with a spring surge rapidly fading as the summer brought higher prices and more uncertainty. The weak jobs report does not eliminate prospects of an interest rate rise, as officials focus on inflation. BlackRock's Rick Rieder said the surprise contraction in payrolls reflects a "productivity revolution" rather than economic weakness. The jobs report posed high stakes for investors as traders watched for clues to the Fed's next move. Friday's jobs report came as investors increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising rates as soon as next month. Kevin Warsh's silence is manufacturing market noise, as investors want to know how the Fed will react to changing economic data.

Market Structure & Flows

Private-equity firms are pouncing on the hot IPO market as sluggish dealmaking has made it hard to find buyers. The UK's sluggish IPO market is leaving private equity and venture capital firms with fewer exit routes. Carlyle Group is seeing a thaw in capital markets that is quickening the tempo of exits. Investor bullishness has become so extreme that it's time to start reducing exposure to risky assets, according to Bank of America strategists. Wall Street bulls are flocking to S&P 500 calls as the rally broadens. Options traders have been spending millions to guard against sharp declines in long-dated Treasuries, risking bigger volatility. Index funds that seem to invest the same way are performing very differently this year. The worst trading outage ever in Brazilian financial markets put B3's near-monopoly in focus as investors in Latin America's biggest economy faced yet another disruption. India's new auction system for setting closing stock prices had traders convinced the reform was faltering in its first week. China's latest initiative to rein in quantitative trading has reduced volatility but also sapped turnover.