Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: May 13, 2026, 2:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Turmoil & Energy Markets

Global energy markets are grappling with the fallout from the Iran war, which drove wholesale prices higher and caused the Producer Price Index to rise at its fastest pace in four years. The conflict has severely impacted shipping, as evidenced by the nearly 30% fall in crude and fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz last quarter, according to the EIA data. This supply disruption is forcing producers to adjust forecasts, with OPEC cutting its oil demand growth projection to 1.17 million barrels per day for the year, down from 1.38 million previously. Meanwhile, the impact is reaching deep into industrial sectors, making routine maintenance like car oil changes more expensive.

The disruption in the Persian Gulf continues to tighten supply across the board. Saudi Arabia’s crude production collapsed to its lowest level since 1990 last month due to choked exports, and satellite imagery confirms that oil jetties at Iran’s Kharg Island were empty again Tuesday, marking the first prolonged halt since the war began. This crisis is transforming the U.S. into an energy powerhouse, driven by the shale boom, even as developing nations like Pakistan see their economic outlook clouded by rising crude prices and Fitch Ratings slashing Bangladesh’s outlook to ‘negative’.

Further evidence of the supply crunch shows up in U.S. inventory data, where crude stocks fell 4.3 million barrels for the third straight week, exceeding expectations. In response to price pressures, investors secured 5% yields on 30-year Treasuries for the first time since 2007, reflecting surging inflation expectations. This environment is also testing maritime trade, as a Chinese-owned supertanker prepares to test the U.S. blockade near Hormuz, while Vietnam is urging the U.S. Navy to permit a tanker passage outside the Gulf, deeming the shipment critical.

US Equities & Corporate Dealmaking

U.S. equity futures signaled a rebound as dip buyers targeted technology shares, outweighing recent inflation concerns fueled by hot price data. Morgan Stanley increased its S&P 500 target to 8,300, betting that a strong economy and record earnings will sustain the bull market. Investor attention was also drawn to the energy transition sector, where Fervo Energy’s shares soared 33% on its debut, valuing the geothermal developer, backed by Bill Gates and Google, at approximately $7.7 billion after it successfully raised $1.89 billion in an upsized IPO . Separately, tech executives like Nvidia’s and Tesla’s CEOs joined President Trump’s China trip, suggesting market focus remains on geopolitical stability alongside earnings growth.

In corporate finance, Ford Motor Co. shares surged Wednesday following a bullish assessment from Morgan Stanley that emphasized the automaker’s energy storage business. Meanwhile, the mining sector saw consolidation, with Equinox Gold and Orla Mining agreeing to merge to form a new $18.5 billion North American gold major. In alternative assets, PE-owned insurers are reportedly piling into higher-yielding private credit, reshaping their portfolios amid prevailing market conditions.

Global Politics & Economic Headwinds

The high-stakes summit between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping carried significant market implications, occurring as the U.S. seeks rare-earth minerals from China to rebuild stockpiles drained by the Iran war. The geopolitical rivalry remains intense, marked by mistrust even amid diplomatic niceties. Back in Washington, the administration’s stance on vaping drew internal dissent, leading to the resignation of FDA Commissioner Marty Makary after the President sided with tobacco interests over regulatory concerns regarding flavored e-cigarettes. Furthermore, House backers reached the threshold to force a vote on $1.3 billion in Ukraine aid, which could occur by the end of May.

Inflationary pressures are being felt globally, prompting central banks to maintain restrictive stances. The Czech central bank signaled policy remains tight despite recent inflation acceleration linked to the Iran war fallout. In Europe, pressure mounts on policy, with an ECB official criticizing German opposition to the UniCredit bid for Commerzbank as contrary to the single market spirit. Economic woes are also visible in France, where unemployment unexpectedly jumped beyond 8% for the first time in five years.

Sector Moves & Market Structure

The renewable energy sector continues to attract capital, exemplified by the successful listing of geothermal specialist Fervo Energy, which utilizes oil and gas drilling techniques. In stark contrast to energy volatility, luxury and consumer goods saw corporate maneuvering, as Italian gold dealer Gens Aurea SpA prepares a Milan IPO aiming to raise up to €500 million. Meanwhile, in the automotive sector, Canadian vehicle imports and Malaysia’s auto sector are under review in latest market talks, while U.S. electric vehicle sales remain sluggish despite rising fuel prices elsewhere.

In fixed income and credit, Wells Fargo & Co. is marketing an investment-grade bond sale in up to three tranches a month after reporting weaker-than-expected first-quarter results. In private credit, former SEC Chair Clayton stated he sees no excess leverage, arguing the industry aided the U.S. recovery post-2008. Elsewhere, Agnico Eagle Mines announced a C$14 billion investment into Ontario gold assets, one of the largest private sector commitments in the province’s mining history.

Other Corporate and Academic News

In education and real estate, Northeastern University secured a $202.7 million windfall following its takeover of Marymount Manhattan College, leveraging the newly acquired prime Manhattan property. In philanthropy, Atlas Co-Founder Andrew Bursky pledged $200 million to Washington University for a new school of public health. On the litigation front, Skechers USA Inc. increased its offer to hedge funds challenging 3G Capital’s $9.4 billion buyout of the footwear maker after settlement talks stalled. In regulatory news, trading volume on the prediction market Polymarket declined for the first time since August, which coincides with founder acknowledgments of missteps amidst scrutiny over insider trading flags.