Polymarket, the crypto‑backed prediction market, saw a trio of users rack up $600,000 in profit after Israel struck Iran on June 12. Thirteen bettors placed a collective $140,000 against odds that the attack was unlikely, opening accounts only days earlier. The win sparked a NYT probe into possible insider trading on the platform for investors and regulators to understand the.

Investigators identified more than 80 accounts with suspicious patterns, including 38 that placed well‑timed bets on events from 2024 onward. A special‑forces sergeant, Master Gannon Ken Van Dyke, allegedly used classified intel to win $400,000 on Venezuela’s Maduro arrest, while seven users earned over $1.4 million on U.S. cease‑fire odds before a Trump tweet and the market to realize the risk of insider activity today.

Polymarket’s public transaction ledger exposes every wager, making pattern detection easier for regulators. Yet the site and rival Kalshi together rake in roughly $25 billion monthly, up from under $2 billion a year ago. With Kalshi’s 2024 court win and Polymarket’s limited U.S. approval, the surge in betting volume pressures lawmakers to tighten rules on insider trading in prediction markets for investors.