Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: May 13, 2026, 11:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Shocks and Inflationary Pressures

The conflict in Iran continues to ripple across global commodity and sovereign debt markets, with wholesale prices jumping in April at their fastest pace in four years, reinforcing consumer inflation fears and leading the Dow industrials lower. Energy markets are showing divergence: Saudi Arabia reported output sank to its lowest since 1990 amid the crisis, causing Saudi Aramco to warn that fuel stocks are heading for ‘critically low levels,’ while simultaneously, North Sea oil traded at a discount for the first time during the war as immediate supply shock fears eased. This energy fallout is straining emerging markets, forcing Turkey’s central bank to raise inflation forecasts, and prompting Fitch Ratings to cut Bangladesh’s outlook to ‘negative’ due to its high vulnerability.

The impact of the Middle East tensions is clear in energy consumption patterns: the IEA now projects global oil demand will contract by 420,000 barrels a day this year, a sharp downward revision from the 80,000-barrel decline projected earlier, even as OPEC officially cut its demand forecast. This inventory depletion is leading to record drawdowns globally as inventories fall rapidly, prompting Japan to increase coal power generation as liquefied natural gas supplies become prohibitively expensive. Meanwhile, on the diplomatic front, President Trump is in China meeting Xi Jinping, a summit where trade, AI, and the ongoing Iran tensions are expected to dominate discussions regarding global stability as investors brace for ramifications.

Fixed Income and Monetary Policy

Accelerating U.S. inflation concerns pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yieldpushed the to its highest level since July, fueling trader bets for higher interest rates in the coming year, a dynamic that has already derailed the anticipated Kevin Warsh tradethat has already in the bond market. Despite this, JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos-Bujas statedthis that strong corporate earnings are so far outweighing geopolitical risks for equity valuations. In Europe, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn warnedEurope that emerging data points toward the beginning of a stagflationary shock stemming from rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict, while in the Czech Republic, the central bank maintained that monetary policy remains restrictivethat despite recent inflation acceleration.

The municipal bond market is seeing some unusual activity: United Airlines is returning to the marketactivity: with a $256 million offering rated junk, a deal postponed from last year due to volatility, while BlackRock warned that downgrades loomvolatility, while for state and local borrowers, making the market “less forgiving.” On the corporate funding side, Wells Fargo is marketing an investment-grade bond salefunding side in up to three parts, coming shortly after the bank reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter results. Further afield, Amazon successfully sold its first Swiss franc bondsFurther afield across a record six tranches, signaling big tech’s willingness to tap non-traditional debt markets for funding.

Corporate Finance and Dealmaking

The mining sector saw major consolidation news as Equinox Gold agreed to buy Orla Miningnews as in a $5.1 billion cash-and-stock transaction, creating a new North American gold giant with an agreed merger value of $18.5 billion following the initial announcement5 billion. In stark contrast, Agnico Eagle Mines announcedIn stark contrast a C$14 billion ($10.2 investment in Ontario, marking what the province claims is one of the largest private sector commitments in its mining history. Private equity activity showed complexity, with Blackstone walking away from a $4 billion dealcomplexity, with for New World Development after failing to secure management control, while PE-owned life insurers are reportedly piling into alternative credit holdingsinsurers are reportedly, reshaping their portfolios toward higher-yielding assets.

In the tech and AI space, chips startup Fractile raised $220 millionAI space from investors including Factorial Funds and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund to enhance AI query speed, though established giants are still struggling to monetize heavy AI investment; Alibaba and Tencent both reportedAI investment revenues that missed estimates, disappointing investors hoping for an AI-driven growth surge. Meanwhile, Skechers USA increased its offerMeanwhile to hedge funds challenging the price of 3G Capital’s $9.4 billion buyout, indicating ongoing litigation costs for large private equity transactions. On the regulatory front, AI lobbying efforts intensifythe regulatory front as OpenAI and Anthropic open Washington offices to influence federal lawmakers, while in Europe, the EU is moving to force rail operators to sell rival servicesto to replicate competition seen in air travel.

Political Maneuvering and Regulatory Shifts

Political maneuvers in Washington are yielding tangible financial results for specific industries; the tobacco industry secured a winindustries; the in a dispute over vapes, as the President sided with industry donors over his resigning FDA commissioner, Robert MakaryFDA commissioner. Separately, the administration has begun the process of refunding approximately $160 billionthe process of in duties deemed illegal, even as the President continues to criticize the courts overseeing the process. In corporate governance debates, Game Stop’s Ryan Cohen is now in controldebates after eBay rebuffed an offer, while elsewhere, chief executives are being warnedwhile elsewhere against scrapping quarterly earnings reports in favor of personal convenience over transparency.

In corporate leadership news, Golub Capital promoted the Golub brothersnews to Co-CEO and Co-Presidents roles for the first time, signaling a shift in management structure at the alternative asset manager. In philanthropy, Andrew Bursky and his wife pledged $200 millionIn philanthropy to Washington University in St. Louis to establish a new school of public health. Meanwhile, the political turmoil in the Philippines escalated as a senator allied with former President Duterteas a faced arrest amid dramatic scenes involving gunfire inside the Senate chamber while the politician remained holed upthe Senate chamber. In the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces mounting calls to resignUK, Prime Minister from within his own Labour Party, drawing comparisons to President Biden’s own leadership pressures as his legislative agenda was readpressures.