Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Energy Markets & Geopolitics
Aramco shares bloomberg.com surged their most since 2023 as the Iran war entered its second week, prompting supply disruptions that may send oil prices higher when global markets reopen. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait started reducing oil production bloomberg.com as the near-closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz ripples through energy markets and affects global supply. Brent crude could cross the $100 threshold if the strait experiences several weeks of closure, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. Oil prices nytimes.com hit their highest level in a year and a half, with gasoline surging 14% in a week as surging oil prices suggest that increases will continue. National Economic Director Kevin Hassett said there are no plans to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve despite the surge.
Stock Market Volatility
The S&P 500 dropped sharply nytimes.com as investors grappled with the Iran war's impact, with the index now in negative territory for the year. A weak jobs report hit stocks at a time when a widening war in the Middle East is lifting oil prices and fueling inflation jitters. Anxiety about the private-credit industry also reduced risk appetite. The former Goldman Sachs CEO warned that "a reckoning" is coming amid what he calls "an anxious market." Emerging markets stocks and currencies posted their worst week since the Covid outbreak as an escalating conflict in the Middle East triggered a surge in oil prices.
Technology & AI Developments
Anthropic nytimes.com and OpenAI's competition has become deeply personal as negotiations, threats, and amended contracts leave questions about their Pentagon dealings. The showdown between the Pentagon and Anthropic is a window into how unprepared we are for the questions we are facing. Meanwhile, Samsung ft.com seeks AI deals to challenge Apple's smartphone lead, with its device chief saying future Galaxy devices will host multiple AI models as users mix and match tools. BYD wsj.com launched a new fast-charging battery that can be fully charged in nine minutes amid slowing demand in China.
Private Equity & Investment
KKR & Co. will acquire a 348 billion won ($235 stake in South Korean renewable energy firm SK Eternix Co., stepping up its climate and environmental investments. Private capital firm KKR ft.com seeks a big return on investment in Cool IT Systems as the AI boom boosts valuations. BlackRock's retail private-credit hopes ran into market angst as it looked like a golden age of private credit when the firm plunked down $12 billion to buy HPS Investment Partners. Direct lenders bloomberg.com have taken control of nearly 150 companies in Europe after they could no longer afford to pay their debts.
Corporate Moves & M&A
Axel Springer nytimes.com agreed to buy the U.K.'s Telegraph for $766 million, the latest twist for the influential British newspaper whose ownership had been in limbo for years. Prada wsj.com warned that Versace's revamp will drag on profitability, with the fashion house saying Versace's consolidation would dilute its profit margin this year but improve from 2027. Vacheron Constantin ft.com bets on culture and complications instead of volume, with its chief executive saying museum tie-ins count as much as mechanics.
Regional Markets & Economic Impact
Women in China bloomberg.com run nearly $1 trillion of funds, with female fund managers overseeing a total of 6.8 trillion yuan ($984 in assets as of March 6. India ft.com faces an energy conundrum as the Middle East war hits supply, with a U.S. submarine strike on an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean pushing the conflict to India's doorstep. Indonesia ft.com sees its "economic heroes" driving growth, though a merger between two big ride-hailing companies could make life harder for drivers.
Financial Services & Banking
Western Alliance wsj.com sued Jefferies over a soured loan and recorded a charge-off as fears mount in the world of private credit. JPMorgan bloomberg.com's co-head of shareholder engagement departed the Wall Street bank. The former US Energy Secretary discussed the potential impact of ongoing tensions in the Middle East on global energy markets, seeing multiple options on the table.
Market Analysis & Strategy
Wall Street trading desks bloomberg.com rewrote stocks playbooks on the US-Iran war, with Bank of America steering clients to buy HALO (hard assets, low obsolescence) stocks while Goldman Sachs recommended a geopolitical basket of defense contractors. BlackRock's Rosenberg bloomberg.com said the "weak" jobs report undermines the benign outlook when faced with the tradeoff between a short-term inflation shock like the surge in oil prices and a labor market under pressure. Goldman's Dart bloomberg.com said triple-digit oil is a "possible" scenario if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed.
Regulatory & Legal Developments
President Trump is facing a major legal challenge from a group of states planning to file a lawsuit over his order placing a 10% tax on goods entering the US. A judge voided mass layoffs at Voice of America, saying Kari Lake's appointment to oversee VOA's parent agency was invalid - a major rejection of Trump's attempts to dismantle the government-funded news group. Trump allies nytimes.com clashed with Massie over the Iran war in Kentucky, with Representative Thomas Massie's race against a rival backed by the president shaping up as a key midterm testing ground for GOP attitudes on the conflict.
Alternative Assets & Cryptocurrency
A new generation of cryptocurrency pegged to the dollar is growing rapidly, promising faster payments and potentially lower interest rates, though regulators and bankers warn of risks. Polymarket founder bloomberg.com said war-related contracts face growing risks as the prediction market industry's war-related contracts face increasing scrutiny. Stablecoin firms bloomberg.com bet big on AI agent payments that barely exist, with Circle Internet Group and Stripe racing to build payment systems for a world where autonomous AI agents transact millions of times a day.
Defense & Aerospace
Missile interceptor shortage bloomberg.com worries rise in world capitals as drones and missiles target cities and critical infrastructure in Ukraine and the Gulf, with the world scrambling to secure supplies of the air defense interceptors needed to stop them. The proliferation of cheap, powerful GPS jammers has airline operators, shipping firms, and militaries alike scrambling for navigation alternatives. Russia nytimes.com attacked Kharkiv and Kyiv in Ukraine, killing at least 10 people when a Russian missile hit a five-story apartment building in Kharkiv.