Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Turmoil and Oil Shock
US payrolls bloomberg.com fell by 92,000 in February, marking the first decline since 2020 and sending unemployment to 4.2%. The shock report triggered a broad market selloff, with the Dow Jones bloomberg.com turning negative for 2026 as investors reassessed economic resilience amid Middle East turmoil. Energy stocks bloomberg.com surged on the possibility of sustained high prices, with traders warning that $100 oil could be imminent if the Iran conflict continues.
Goldman Sachs bloomberg.com is steering clients toward "HALO" stocks—hard assets with low obsolescence—while Bank of America recommends defense contractors as geopolitical tensions drive demand for security plays. Meanwhile, South Korean equities bloomberg.com rebounded sharply after their biggest one-day drop on record, as bargain hunters returned to battered markets.
Oil Market Disruption
Oil prices spiked as the Iran war disrupted roughly one-fifth of global supply, though prices remain below previous crisis levels. US crude shipment costs bloomberg.com to Asia hit records, with some deals already falling through due to sky-high rates. Tanker rates bloomberg.com have pushed shippers to book smaller vessels as massive tanker costs soar.
The Strait of Hormuz bloomberg.com saw traffic all but stop, with only nine empty supertankers visible in the Persian Gulf. Qatar's LNG facilities bloomberg.com remain largely intact according to satellite analysis, while US-sanctioned tankers bloomberg.com crossed the waterway despite restrictions. Myanmar bloomberg.com imposed vehicle limits to conserve fuel as Middle East shipping disruptions threaten energy supplies.
Fixed Income and Credit Markets
US bonds bloomberg.com suffered their worst week since April amid inflation concerns driven by surging oil prices. Bond traders bloomberg.com are piling into inflation hedges, pushing valuations to near-year highs. Private credit bloomberg.com faces a "full-blown default cycle" according to Pacific Investment Management, with direct lenders bloomberg.com having taken control of nearly 150 European companies after debt defaults.
Kennedy-Wilson bloomberg.com bondholders are organizing to reject a debt exchange offer, seeking cash payments instead. MFS Investment Management bloomberg.com faces liquidity stress in the high-yield bond market following the collapse of Market Financial Solutions. Brightline Florida bloomberg.com faces potential restructuring within six months due to thinning reserves and negative cash flows.
Corporate and M&A Activity
Oracle ft.com and OpenAI scrapped plans to expand a flagship Texas data center, with Meta in talks to take up the additional computing capacity. Cerebras Systems bloomberg.com has tapped Morgan Stanley to lead its IPO as the AI chipmaker mounts a renewed public offering attempt. Kalshi and Polymarket are each eyeing roughly $20 billion valuations as prediction markets seek to double previous valuations.
SK Innovation bloomberg.com is laying off more than one-third of its Georgia workforce amid an EV sales slowdown. Braskem Idesa bloomberg.com is in talks with creditors for financing to fund a potential Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding. Brazil's antitrust regulator bloomberg.com cleared a proposed transaction allowing IG4 Capital to buy a controlling stake in petrochemicals producer Braskem SA.
Regulatory and Policy Developments
The Federal Reserve bloomberg.com expects rates to remain on hold for some time, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack bloomberg.com citing two-sided risks. The SEC bloomberg.com is resisting 5x leveraged ETFs, while the SEC and CFTC bloomberg.com discuss moving into the same Washington building complex. The Fed granted Kraken ft.com access to the payments system, marking the first such approval for a crypto group.
The Trump administration bloomberg.com announced a $20 billion reinsurance program to revive shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent bloomberg.com said the US may lift sanctions on further Russian oil supply after allowing Indian refiners to purchase crude. The US energy secretary bloomberg.com called to restart the shuttered Indian Point nuclear plant north of New York City to meet surging power demand.
Technology and Innovation
The European Central Bank bloomberg.com is "very vigilant" on Iran war inflation impact, with Governor Isabel Schnabel saying the bank will consult projections to decide whether action is needed. The US ft.com is drafting strict new AI guidelines amid an Anthropic clash, with draft rules mandating civilian government contracts make models available for "any lawful" use.
Alphaton's bloomberg.com new autonomous whistleblower platform uses blockchain to protect identities and prevent data seizure. The AI PR problem ft.com persists as sector companies have been slow to address public concerns over the technology. Stablecoins wsj.com are at the center of a fight between crypto and banking industries over savings account alternatives.
International Markets
India bloomberg.com is using record bond swaps to tackle a looming maturity wall, easing pressure from heavy debt liabilities coming due. Korean stocks saw their most volatile week since 2008, surging after a record one-day slump. Morgan Stanley downgraded Indian stocks, noting foreigners have rushed to sell shares amid Middle East conflict.
Global banks bloomberg.com attracted to India's nearly $4 trillion economy are discovering access comes at a price: limited control, drawn-out returns, and the need for unconventional deal structures. Australian mining heavyweights investing.com slipped on ex-dividend trade, while European stocks bloomberg.com are expected to resume declines as the dollar strengthens.
Emerging Market Concerns
Most emerging-market currencies bloomberg.com rebounded as mixed signals around the Middle East conflict tempered the oil rally and weighed on the dollar. US aluminum buyers bloomberg.com are rushing to secure alternative supplies from Asia as the war on Iran disrupts a major foreign source, threatening to hike metal costs used in everything from cars to construction.
The Iran crisis ft.com is unfolding in a world where oil and gas supplies are more diversified than in previous decades, though the conflict still poses significant risks. Ships in the Gulf ft.com declared themselves Chinese to dodge attack, with at least 10 vessels changing transponder messages in apparent attempts to avoid becoming targets.