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India's Record $29.5B Bond Swap Eases Looming Debt Maturity Crisis

Bloomberg Markets •
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India has executed a record $29.5 billion bond swap to manage a critical debt maturity crisis. The government converted 2.7 trillion rupees ($29.5 billion) of short-term bonds into long-term securities during the fiscal year ending March, pushing repayments further into the future. This strategy aims to reduce the need for heavy borrowing later as maturing bonds from the pandemic era start to come due. Average annual redemptions are set to double to 6.6 trillion rupees by March 2031, according to central bank data. The urgency increased after the February 1 budget revealed a larger-than-expected borrowing plan.

New Delhi conducted a 755-billion rupee swap with the Reserve Bank of India last month and has carried out two rounds of investor swaps since last week. The government plans another 200 billion rupee swap with investors next week. By extending maturities, the government gains breathing room and eases strain on next year's borrowing plans. As a result, gross borrowing for the April 1 fiscal year is expected to be about 1 trillion rupees lower than the budgeted 17.2 trillion rupees.

While the swaps provide immediate relief, they carry trade-offs. When swapping with investors instead of the RBI, the government increases long-term bond supply in the market. This additional duration may push yields higher in the near term. Benchmark yields have risen over 40 basis points since June despite central bank rate cuts and bond purchases, indicating supply pressures. The strategy's benefits outweigh near-term costs, though the market impact remains a concern.