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Last updated: March 31, 2026, 8:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Shocks and Energy Volatility

Crude benchmarks resumed their advance after President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to conclude the military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed, leading to an immediate jump in US stock futures. However, the underlying supply crisis persists, with Brent crude on course for its largest monthly price rise on record as the threat of a prolonged closure of the Strait keeps energy costs climbing. Despite oil hovering around the low $100s, spiking fuel costs are already painting a clearer picture of the escalating disruption, evidenced by US national average gasoline prices surging past $4 a gallon, which prompted South Africa to announce a reduction in its domestic fuel tax to offset the shock. Simultaneously, a major Saudi petrochemical facility shut down due to supply chain disruption, while a Kuwaiti tanker was struck by an Iranian drone near Dubai, further tightening the market.

Global Inflation and Central Bank Responses

The energy shock is translating directly into sharp inflation readings across developed economies, with the euro area experiencing its steepest jump in inflation since 2022 driven by soaring energy costs, backing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will need to tighten policy. French inflation accelerated to its fastest pace since August 2024 on the back of war-driven energy prices, leading ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller to state he cannot rule out an April rate hike if prices remain inflated. In contrast, Ethiopia’s central bank opted to retain its benchmark interest rate at 15%, maintaining a tight stance to keep inflation below 10%, while the Bank of Korea nominee asserted that dollar liquidity remains ample despite localized market volatility.

Market Reactions and Sectoral Shifts

US stock futures climbed on the prospect of an earlier end to hostilities, although this quarter is set to be the worst for stocks in four years, as tech megacaps entered correction territory and small investors showed waning conviction. Asian bourses exhibited divergent paths, with Taiwanese shares outperforming South Korean peers by the widest margin since 2009, signaling relative resilience compared to South Korea’s tech-heavy rally, which is now exposed as vulnerable. Meanwhile, the US dollar is recording its best monthly performance since October 2024, benefiting from its status as the primary reserve currency amid global uncertainty. On the M&A front, Biogen agreed to acquire Apellis Pharmaceuticals for approximately $5.6 billion, aiming to bolster its rare-disease and immunology pipeline.

Corporate Adjustments and Supply Chain Stress

The increased costs stemming from the Middle East conflict are forcing major corporations to adjust operations, with Unilever freezing global hiring for three months due to rising shipping expenses, even as it nears the sale of its food unit to McCormick & Co. . Supply chain strain is also manifesting in industrial commodities, as aluminum heads for a 10% monthly surge due to disrupted regional production, and the helium shortage—critical for semiconductors and rocketry—has been acutely highlighted by the war in the region. In the infrastructure space, German power prices for May are trading at four times the level of France, amplifying long-standing supply differences amid the gas disruption. Furthermore, the UK’s aviation regulator rejected Heathrow’s £10 billion spending plan, pushing for charges per passenger to remain flat over the next five years.

Technology, Finance, and Corporate Strategy

Technology stocks are experiencing valuation compression, with the Nasdaq 100’s relative valuation to the S&P 500 hitting its lowest point since 2018, though this is drawing in buyers who see crushing valuations as an opportunity. In private capital, Oaktree’s 17Capital successfully closed its latest net-asset-value loan fund at roughly $7.5 billion, even as the wider private capital industry faces a "disappointment era" with returns potentially falling short of investor expectations. In aviation deals, Delta Air Lines will tap Amazon’s satellite-internet service for in-flight Wi-Fi beginning in 2028, while India’s largest carrier, Indi Go, appointed the head of IATA as its new CEO. Elsewhere, credit intelligence firm 9fin Ltd. secured fresh funding at a $1.3 billion valuation to expand its footprint in debt intelligence.

Regulatory Matters and Global Economy

Regulators worldwide are increasing scrutiny on dominant tech players, as the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) initiated a probe into whether Microsoft should receive ‘strategic market status’ for its business software. In corporate governance, JPMorgan Chase announced its “American Dream Initiative” aimed at boosting broader economic growth and small business access, while Blackstone is reportedly planning a $500 million initial public offering in Mumbai for its AGS Health unit. The global economic outlook remains troubled, with the UN estimating the Iran war could wipe out nearly $200 billion in economic growth across the Middle East, and New Zealand’s business sentiment slumping to the lowest since 2024 due to the conflict's impact on earnings forecasts.